LIVEFELT · REPORT 1 OF 2 · MAPPING AND FAIRNESS PROOF
EVERY SPORT, EVERY MODE, PROVEN FAIR.
One real play in the world = one event in the game. This report builds the event map for
13 sports plus a markets bucket against all five LiveFelt mechanics and proves each map lands on the
casino target: true two-dice odds for LiveRoll, a fair crash curve for LiveCrash, 95% RTP for LiveSlots,
and a fair 52-card deck for LiveHit and LiveDeal. Every frequency is a real, cited, published rate.
No number in this report is invented, and no outcome in any map is random: where a common event must span
two outcomes, the split rides a named, real attribute of the play (yardage, pitch location, rally length,
field side), never a random draw. API feasibility, latency, rights and cost are deliberately out of scope: that is Report 2.
16 streams5 mechanics80 verdict cellsLiveRoll edge 1.41% passLiveCrash edge 2.0% flatLiveSlots RTP 95.0% exactDeck games 1/13 per rank exactSeason data 2023-2025, cited
THE VERDICT MATRIX · WHICH SPORT FITS WHICH MECHANIC
NATURAL 69FORCED 9DOESN'T-WORK 2 of 80 cells · hover any cell for the one-line reason · full analysis per sport below
THE MATH · FOUR CONSTRUCTIONS, ONE DRIFT TEST
LiveRoll · exact stacked map
The sport's exclusive event classes (plus declared attribute splits) are packed into the 15 hard/soft
dice rows so each row's probability equals its true craps odds exactly. Big events that straddle a row
boundary are cut on a named continuous mark (probability integral transform), flagged with a dagger in every
table. Because the map is exact, every felt bet settles at book odds:
BET
PAYS
HOUSE EDGE (LOCKED)
Pass line
1:1
1.41%
Don't pass (bar 12)
1:1
1.36%
Pass odds (behind the line)
true odds 2:1 / 3:2 / 6:5
0.00%
Field (2 and 12 pay double)
1:1 / 2:1
5.56%
Place 6 / 8
7:6
1.52%
Place 5 / 9
7:5
4.00%
Place 4 / 10
9:5
6.67%
Hard 6 / 8
9:1
9.09%
Hard 4 / 10
7:1
11.11%
The honest number per sport is the drift band: if any single event's true
frequency moves ±10% before recalibration, where can the pass-line edge go? Reported on every map below.
LiveCrash · martingale + instant bust
Pick the sport's bust event with measured hazard h per tick. Growth per surviving tick:
g = 1 / (1 - h)
which makes survival x multiplier a martingale: P(reach m) x m = 1, exactly fair at every cash-out.
The whole house edge is applied as a 2.0% instant bust (bustabit construction), so
P(crash >= m) = 0.98 / m for all m
The audit point is hazard stationarity: where h varies by state (down, round, phase), production uses
the state-conditional table g_t = 1/(1-h_t), cited per sport.
LiveSlots · shipped grammar, solved
Three reels bind to three different live games; one real play locks one reel. Payout follows the
shipped scoreLine grammar (single pays base, pair base squared, triple cubed, summed over distinct symbols)
times a line multiplier m:
RTP = m x SUM_i SUM_k C(3,k) p_i^k (1-p_i)^(3-k) b_i^k = 95%
Closed form, exact, per sport. Every spin returns something; the game is a grind with a jackpot line
(3 of the top symbol).
LiveHit / LiveDeal · fair deck
Events stack into 13 ranks of exactly 1/13 each, prestige ascending (the sport's best moment is the ace).
Ten-value density is exactly 16/52. Already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which makes the live stream
deal statistically identical to a shuffled shoe. Sensitivity of the blackjack edge to calibration drift is
bounded first-order with Griffin's effect-of-removal coefficients; LiveDeal draws its suit from a second
real mark (side of field, court, corner).
Audit of the existing demo math (as instructed: not trusted blindly)
calibration.json stores the fair dice pmf as every sport's "craps" block: it is the target, not an
achieved distribution, and its meta edge is 0.05 where this report standardizes 1.41% (pass) / 2.0% (crash).
rollmaps.json assigns one event to several rows (MLB groundout on 3, 5 and 7) with no stated
sub-allocation rule; this report formalizes those as attribute splits so the felt copy stays deterministic.
LiveSlots shipped BASE table (2/2/2/3/4/5/8/12/20) under the live single/pair/cube grammar returns
7.78 stakes per spin with true 2024 Statcast pitch rates: at a 1-stake spin cost that is 778% RTP.
It needs the line multiplier m = 0.122 to hit the advertised 95%. The separately quoted "worked 95%"
pure three-of-a-kind paytable (HR x3220 ... BALL x5) actually returns 55.4% RTP on three independent
reels at true rates. The per-sport paytables below replace both with exact solves.
NFL
unit: scrimmage play (resolved) · 124.3 events/game · ~40s between snaps; 124 resolved plays/game
calibration exact (rows equal true craps odds by construction) ·
pass-line edge locked at 1.41% · under ±10% single-event calibration drift the pass edge stays in
[-0.36%, 2.76%] ·
22 boundary cuts (†) · 23% of stream mass placed whole
LIVECRASH survival map NATURAL
drive-survival is the native tension of football; h=.176 measured
bust event Drive ends (any cause)hazard 0.1758 per scrimmage playgrowth per survival x1.2133 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 4
nflverse 2024: 5,944 drive-ends / 33,812 real snaps; mean drive 5.69 snaps
LADDER CASH OUT (g^k)
EVENTS SURVIVED (k)
P(REACH)
P x PAYOUT (TARGET 0.98)
x1.79
3
54.87%
0.9800
x2.17
4
45.22%
0.9800
x3.19
6
30.72%
0.9800
x5.70
9
17.20%
0.9800
x10.18
12
9.63%
0.9800
x26.76
17
3.66%
0.9800
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 10.10%
(-10%: -6.63%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Hazard varies by down/distance/field position; production uses state-conditional g_t = 1/(1-h_t) from the same pbp table
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
9 legible play-class symbols; 3 reels = 3 Sunday games
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
GRIND
rush 1-3 / comp 0-4 / scramble
27.71%
x2
0.14
0.29
0.57
12.8%
INC
incomplete
16.40%
x2
0.14
0.29
0.57
7.5%
RUSH+
rush 4-9
14.77%
x3
0.21
0.64
1.93
11.7%
SHORT
comp 5-9
11.04%
x3
0.21
0.64
1.93
8.4%
CHUNK
10-19 yd gain
10.81%
x4
0.29
1.14
4.57
12.1%
STUFF
stuff/sack
10.40%
x5
0.36
1.78
8.92
15.9%
BIG20
20+ yd gain
3.81%
x8
0.57
4.57
36.54
8.6%
TD
pass+rush TD
3.27%
x12
0.86
10.28
123.33
12.1%
TO
INT/fumble
1.79%
x20
1.43
28.55
570.98
10.9%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.0714 normalizes the raw expectation (13.31 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 24.2% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±1.9pp
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHitrank ladder follows play quality; low split load
LiveDeal1 play = 1 board card at ~40s cadence fits flop/turn/river pacing
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
20 boundary cuts (†) · 30% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.45pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: possession side (home/away) x field half = 4 real suits; board fills one card per resolved play ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
calibration exact (rows equal true craps odds by construction) ·
pass-line edge locked at 1.41% · under ±10% single-event calibration drift the pass edge stays in
[-0.30%, 2.71%] ·
22 boundary cuts (†) · 21% of stream mass placed whole
LIVECRASH survival map NATURAL
drive hazard .178 measured; more explosive plays = livelier multipliers
bust event Drive ends (any cause)hazard 0.1780 per scrimmage playgrowth per survival x1.2165 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 4
cfbstats 2024: 24.4 drives / 137.6 snaps; mean drive 5.63 plays
LADDER CASH OUT (g^k)
EVENTS SURVIVED (k)
P(REACH)
P x PAYOUT (TARGET 0.98)
x1.80
3
54.43%
0.9800
x2.19
4
44.74%
0.9800
x3.24
6
30.23%
0.9800
x5.84
9
16.79%
0.9800
x10.51
12
9.33%
0.9800
x28.00
17
3.50%
0.9800
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 10.22%
(-10%: -6.77%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Wider team variance than NFL (57.8-79.9 plays/gm); condition g_t on matchup
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
8 legible symbols; Saturday slates give 3+ concurrent games all day
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
GRIND
rush 1-3 / comp 1-9 / comp<=0
31.88%
x2
0.17
0.34
0.69
17.9%
INC
incompletion
16.03%
x2
0.17
0.34
0.69
8.8%
MOVE
rush 4-9
15.84%
x3
0.26
0.77
2.32
15.3%
CHUNK
10-19 yd
12.20%
x3
0.26
0.77
2.32
11.3%
STUFF
stuff/sack
11.63%
x4
0.34
1.38
5.51
16.0%
XPLO
20+ yd
5.65%
x5
0.43
2.15
10.76
9.1%
TD
pass+rush TD
4.81%
x8
0.69
5.51
44.07
13.8%
TO
INT/fumble
1.98%
x12
1.03
12.39
148.73
7.8%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.0861 normalizes the raw expectation (11.04 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 28.7% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±1.8pp
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
21 boundary cuts (†) · 22% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.49pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: possession side x field half ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
calibration exact (rows equal true craps odds by construction) ·
pass-line edge locked at 1.41% · under ±10% single-event calibration drift the pass edge stays in
[-0.31%, 2.71%] ·
21 boundary cuts (†) · 18% of stream mass placed whole
DECLARED ATTRIBUTE SPLITS (4) · every "|" label is a real feed mark, not RNG
Made 2 | rim: zone split: rim makes 14.0 of 28.2 2PM (B-R shooting)
Made 2 | jumper: zone split
Miss | def reb (off 3PA): miss-type split: 24.1 of 47.6 misses are 3s
Miss | def reb (off 2PA): miss-type split
LIVECRASH survival map NATURAL
scoreless-possession hazard .49: punchy 2-possession median runs
bust event Possession ends scorelesshazard 0.4900 per possessiongrowth per survival x1.9608 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 2
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 19.93%
(-10%: -17.74%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Near coin-flip and empirically ~iid (hot-hand effects 1-2pp); the fastest-cadence crash in the set
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
8 legible symbols; any night has 3+ concurrent games
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
BRICK
miss + def reb
33.00%
x2
0.18
0.35
0.71
19.1%
BUCKET
made 2
23.20%
x2
0.18
0.35
0.71
13.2%
TRIPLE
made 3
11.80%
x3
0.27
0.80
2.39
11.2%
OREB
off reb
9.10%
x3
0.27
0.80
2.39
8.4%
FTS
FT trip
8.20%
x4
0.35
1.42
5.66
10.8%
STEAL
live-ball TO
7.30%
x5
0.44
2.21
11.06
12.7%
TOV
dead-ball TO
5.40%
x8
0.71
5.66
45.30
16.5%
AND1
and-one
2.00%
x12
1.06
12.74
152.89
8.1%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.0885 normalizes the raw expectation (10.74 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 26.5% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±1.7pp
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHitmodest split load; Made-3 = face-card tier is instantly legible
LiveDealboard fills a card every ~14s; hand completes inside 90s
RANK
TARGET
EVENT COMPOSITION
2
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 3PA) 7.69%†
3
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 3PA) 7.69%†
4
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 3PA) 1.32%† · Miss | def reb (off 2PA) 0.92%† · Made 3 4.11%† · And-one 1.35%†
5
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 2PA) 7.69%†
6
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 2PA) 7.69%†
7
7.69%
Made 3 7.69%†
8
7.69%
Made 2 | jumper 7.69%†
9
7.69%
Made 2 | jumper 4.03%† · Miss | off reb (new chance) 1.41%† · Turnover | dead ball 1.50%† · And-one 0.65%† · Bonus FTs 0.12%†
T
7.69%
Made 2 | rim 7.69%†
J
7.69%
Made 2 | rim 3.79%† · Turnover | dead ball 3.90%†
Q
7.69%
Miss | off reb (new chance) 7.69%†
K
7.69%
Turnover | steal 7.30% · Bonus FTs 0.39%†
A
7.69%
Shooting foul, FTs 6.70% · Bonus FTs 0.99%†
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
21 boundary cuts (†) · 14% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.49pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: offense side x halfcourt side of floor ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
bust event Possession ends scorelesshazard 0.4980 per possessiongrowth per survival x1.9920 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 2
S-R 2024-25 D1 aggregates: TO .1714 + miss-DRB .3166 + scoreless FT trip .0104
LADDER CASH OUT (g^k)
EVENTS SURVIVED (k)
P(REACH)
P x PAYOUT (TARGET 0.98)
x1.99
1
49.20%
0.9800
x3.97
2
24.70%
0.9800
x7.90
3
12.40%
0.9800
x15.75
4
6.22%
0.9800
x31.37
5
3.12%
0.9800
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 20.48%
(-10%: -18.41%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Higher TO rate than NBA (17.1% vs 12.6%) keeps busts dramatic
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
6 symbols; March slates run 16 concurrent games
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
BRICK
miss + def reb
31.66%
x2
0.21
0.43
0.85
22.0%
BUCKET
made 2
26.64%
x2
0.21
0.43
0.85
18.4%
FTS
FT trip
13.25%
x3
0.32
0.96
2.88
15.4%
TRIPLE
made 3
11.32%
x3
0.32
0.96
2.88
12.9%
STEAL
steal
9.93%
x4
0.43
1.71
6.82
16.3%
TOV
dead-ball TO
7.21%
x5
0.53
2.66
13.32
15.0%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.1066 normalizes the raw expectation (8.91 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 23.9% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±1.2pp
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHitas NBA with slightly coarser event classes
LiveDealcadence supports the board fill
RANK
TARGET
EVENT COMPOSITION
2
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 2PA) 7.69%†
3
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 2PA) 7.69%†
4
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 2PA) 1.47%† · Made 2 | rim 5.63%† · Turnover | dead ball 0.59%†
5
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 3PA) 7.69%†
6
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 3PA) 7.11%† · Turnover | dead ball 0.59%†
7
7.69%
Made 2 | rim 7.69%†
8
7.69%
Made 2 | jumper 7.69%†
9
7.69%
Made 2 | jumper 5.63%† · Turnover | dead ball 2.07%†
T
7.69%
FT trip 7.69%†
J
7.69%
FT trip 5.56%† · Turnover | dead ball 2.14%†
Q
7.69%
Made 3 7.69%†
K
7.69%
Made 3 3.63%† · Turnover | steal 2.24%† · Turnover | dead ball 1.83%†
A
7.69%
Turnover | steal 7.69%†
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
20 boundary cuts (†) · 0% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.45pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: offense side x floor side ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
scoreless-possession hazard .534: slightly punchier busts than NBA, still short runs
bust event Possession ends scorelesshazard 0.5340 per possessiongrowth per survival x2.1459 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 1
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 13.23%
(-10%: -9.23%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Higher scoreless hazard than NBA (WNBA PPP 1.01 vs 1.15; FG% .439 vs .467); empirically near-iid, short ~2-possession median runs
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
8 legible symbols; in-season slate carries concurrent games
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
BRICK
miss + def reb
31.45%
x2
0.16
0.32
0.64
16.4%
BUCKET
made 2
21.67%
x2
0.16
0.32
0.64
11.1%
OREB
off reb
10.67%
x3
0.24
0.72
2.16
9.0%
TRIPLE
made 3
9.11%
x3
0.24
0.72
2.16
7.6%
FTS
FT trip
9.11%
x4
0.32
1.28
5.12
11.1%
STEAL
live-ball TO
8.33%
x5
0.40
2.00
10.00
13.5%
TOV
dead-ball TO
7.44%
x8
0.64
5.12
40.97
22.9%
AND1
and-one
2.22%
x12
0.96
11.52
138.26
8.3%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.0800 normalizes the raw expectation (11.87 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 25.1% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±2.3pp
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHitmodest split load; Made-3 = face-card tier is instantly legible
LiveDealboard fills a card every ~13s; hand completes inside ~90s
RANK
TARGET
EVENT COMPOSITION
2
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 2PA) 7.69%†
3
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 2PA) 7.69%†
4
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 2PA) 2.40%† · Made 2 | jumper 3.36%† · And-one 1.94%†
5
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 3PA) 7.69%†
6
7.69%
Miss | def reb (off 3PA) 5.98%† · Made 3 1.42%† · And-one 0.28%† · Bonus FTs 0.02%†
7
7.69%
Made 2 | jumper 7.69%†
8
7.69%
Miss | off reb (new chance) 7.69%†
9
7.69%
Miss | off reb (new chance) 2.98%† · Made 2 | rim 2.93%† · Turnover | steal 0.64%† · Bonus FTs 1.15%†
T
7.69%
Made 2 | rim 7.69%†
J
7.69%
Made 3 7.69%†
Q
7.69%
Turnover | steal 7.69%†
K
7.69%
Shooting foul, FTs 7.44% · Bonus FTs 0.25%†
A
7.69%
Turnover | dead ball 7.44% · Bonus FTs 0.25%†
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
21 boundary cuts (†) · 15% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.43pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: offense side x halfcourt side of floor ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
calibration exact (rows equal true craps odds by construction) ·
pass-line edge locked at 1.41% · under ±10% single-event calibration drift the pass edge stays in
[-0.30%, 2.70%] ·
26 boundary cuts (†) · 13% of stream mass placed whole
DECLARED ATTRIBUTE SPLITS (4) · every "|" label is a real feed mark, not RNG
Pass complete | def third: zone split ~30% of completes (Opta zones; est)
Pass complete | mid, left: zone+side split
Pass complete | mid, right: zone+side split
Pass complete | final third: zone split ~25% (est)
LIVECRASH survival map NATURAL
pass-sequence survival IS tiki-taka tension; hazard .29 measured
bust event Possession sequence endshazard 0.2900 per passgrowth per survival x1.4085 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 3
Opta: league mean ~3.4 passes per open-play sequence; team spread .20 (City) to .35
LADDER CASH OUT (g^k)
EVENTS SURVIVED (k)
P(REACH)
P x PAYOUT (TARGET 0.98)
x1.98
2
49.40%
0.9800
x2.79
3
35.08%
0.9800
x3.94
4
24.90%
0.9800
x5.54
5
17.68%
0.9800
x10.99
7
8.91%
0.9800
x30.72
10
3.19%
0.9800
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 13.52%
(-10%: -10.51%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Hazard rises with field position (long/final-third passes fail 2-4x more); state-conditional g_t from pass-zone hazard table
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar FORCED
stream is 57% passes: symbols need curated event-classes and the reel reads pass-heavy between shots
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
PASS+
completed pass
59.15%
x2
0.24
0.48
0.95
49.6%
DUEL
recovery/tackle/aerial/interception
12.78%
x2
0.24
0.48
0.95
9.6%
PASS-
incomplete
12.41%
x3
0.36
1.07
3.21
15.9%
RESET
throw/goal kick/clearance/offside
8.02%
x3
0.36
1.07
3.21
9.8%
BOX
final-third entry class: corner+takeon+foul+card
5.39%
x4
0.48
1.90
7.61
9.0%
SHOT+
shot on target/blocked
1.19%
x5
0.59
2.97
14.86
2.3%
SHOT-
shot off target
0.81%
x8
0.95
7.61
60.85
2.6%
GOAL
goal
0.25%
x12
1.43
17.11
205.36
1.2%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.1188 normalizes the raw expectation (7.99 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 18.4% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±0.8pp
stream renormalized to these 8 classes for the reel
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHit26-event taxonomy stacks into ranks with low split load
LiveDeal17 events/min fills a board in seconds; World Cup shootouts = native side-bet
RANK
TARGET
EVENT COMPOSITION
2
7.69%
Pass complete | def third 7.69%†
3
7.69%
Pass complete | def third 7.69%†
4
7.69%
Pass complete | def third 2.00%† · Pass complete | mid, left 5.35%† · Goal kick 0.17%† · Offside 0.17%†
5
7.69%
Pass complete | final third 7.69%†
6
7.69%
Pass complete | final third 6.80%† · Shot off target 0.80% · Yellow card 0.02%† · Goal 0.08%†
7
7.69%
Pass complete | mid, left 7.69%†
8
7.69%
Pass complete | mid, right 7.69%†
9
7.69%
Pass complete | mid, right 5.35%† · Foul 1.60% · Corner 0.74% · Own goal 0.01% · Red card 0.00%†
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
22 boundary cuts (†) · 28% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.45pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: team in possession x pitch half ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
Foul | third-base side: spray split (~even by symmetry)
Foul | first-base side: spray split
LIVECRASH survival map NATURAL
PA-resolution hazard .257 measured; count-state conditioning available
bust event Plate appearance resolveshazard 0.2571 per pitchgrowth per survival x1.3461 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 3
B-Ref 2024: 3.89 pitches per PA -> per-pitch resolution hazard 1/3.89
LADDER CASH OUT (g^k)
EVENTS SURVIVED (k)
P(REACH)
P x PAYOUT (TARGET 0.98)
x1.81
2
54.09%
0.9800
x2.44
3
40.18%
0.9800
x3.28
4
29.85%
0.9800
x5.95
6
16.47%
0.9800
x10.78
8
9.09%
0.9800
x26.29
11
3.73%
0.9800
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 11.83%
(-10%: -8.53%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Alternative slow curve: out-recorded per PA (h=.680) for inning-length runs; count-conditional hazard table available from Statcast
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
the shipped 9-symbol set is the template; pays recalibrated to true Statcast rates
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
BALL
ball
35.54%
x2
0.23
0.46
0.93
27.2%
K
called+swinging strike
28.46%
x2
0.23
0.46
0.93
21.4%
FOUL
foul
18.24%
x3
0.35
1.05
3.14
24.4%
OUT
in-play out
11.86%
x3
0.35
1.05
3.14
14.8%
1B
single
3.65%
x4
0.46
1.86
7.43
5.8%
2B
double
1.10%
x5
0.58
2.90
14.52
2.1%
HR
home run
0.77%
x8
0.93
7.43
59.46
2.4%
HBP
hit by pitch
0.28%
x12
1.39
16.72
200.66
1.3%
3B
triple
0.10%
x20
2.32
46.45
928.99
0.7%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.1161 normalizes the raw expectation (8.18 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 24.0% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±1.0pp
matches the LIVE LiveSlots symbol set; recalibrated pays below replace the shipped BASE guesses
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHitball/strike mass quantizes into low ranks, hits take the faces
Ball | outside 1.19%† · Ball | low 1.19%† · Ball | high 1.19%† · Ball | inside 1.19%† · Called strike | edge 0.47%† · Called strike | heart 0.46%† · In-play out | air 1.99%†
4
7.69%
Ball | low 7.69%†
5
7.69%
Ball | high 7.69%†
6
7.69%
Ball | inside 7.69%†
7
7.69%
Called strike | edge 7.69%†
8
7.69%
Called strike | heart 7.69%†
9
7.69%
In-play out | ground 6.52% · In-play out | air 0.10%† · Single 0.42%† · Home run 0.64%†
T
7.69%
Foul | third-base side 6.08% · Single 1.61%†
J
7.69%
Foul | first-base side 6.08% · Double 1.10% · Home run 0.13%† · Hit by pitch 0.28% · Triple 0.10%
Q
7.69%
Foul | straight back 6.07% · In-play out | air 1.62%†
K
7.69%
Swinging strike | fastball 6.07% · Single 1.62%†
A
7.69%
Swinging strike | offspeed 6.06% · In-play out | air 1.63%†
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
21 boundary cuts (†) · 38% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.31pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: pitcher hand (L/R) x batter side = real 4-way suit ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
same grammar as MLB one level up; HBP/error chaos is a real college flavor
ROLL
DICE
TRUE ODDS
EVENT COMPOSITION (share of stream)
2
1-1
2.78%
Triple 0.50% · Reached on error 1.70% · Hit by pitch 0.58%†
3
1-2 2-1
5.56%
Strikeout | looking 5.56%†
HARD 4
2-2
2.78%
Hit by pitch 2.78%†
SOFT 4
1-3 3-1
5.56%
In-play out | line 5.56%†
5
1-4 4-1 2-3 3-2
11.11%
Walk 11.11%†
HARD 6
3-3
2.78%
In-play out | ground 1.33%† · In-play out | pop 1.44%†
SOFT 6
1-5 5-1 2-4 4-2
11.11%
In-play out | fly 11.11%†
7
1-6 6-1 2-5 5-2 3-4 4-3
16.67%
In-play out | ground 16.67%†
HARD 8
4-4
2.78%
In-play out | fly 2.39%† · Strikeout | looking 0.24%† · In-play out | line 0.14%†
SOFT 8
2-6 6-2 3-5 5-3
11.11%
Single 11.11%†
9
3-6 6-3 4-5 5-4
11.11%
Strikeout | swinging 11.11%†
HARD 10
5-5
2.78%
Strikeout | swinging 2.29%† · Walk 0.49%†
SOFT 10
4-6 6-4
5.56%
Double 4.60% · In-play out | pop 0.69%† · Hit by pitch 0.14%† · Walk 0.10%† · Home run 0.02%†
11
5-6 6-5
5.56%
Single 4.19%† · In-play out | pop 1.37%†
12
6-6
2.78%
Home run 2.78%†
calibration exact (rows equal true craps odds by construction) ·
pass-line edge locked at 1.41% · under ±10% single-event calibration drift the pass edge stays in
[-0.25%, 2.66%] ·
23 boundary cuts (†) · 7% of stream mass placed whole
DECLARED ATTRIBUTE SPLITS (6) · every "|" label is a real feed mark, not RNG
Strikeout | swinging: K-type split ~70/30 (MLB convention; college split not public)
Strikeout | looking: K-type split
In-play out | ground: GO/AO-style split .44/.33/.14/.09 of outs (MLB shares)
In-play out | fly: split
In-play out | line: split
In-play out | pop: split
LIVECRASH survival map NATURAL
out hazard .599 measured from 124k PAs; CWS drama fits
bust event Batter outhazard 0.5990 per plate appearancegrowth per survival x2.4938 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 1
pooled 2025 D1 totals: P(reach) = .401 -> out hazard .599
LADDER CASH OUT (g^k)
EVENTS SURVIVED (k)
P(REACH)
P x PAYOUT (TARGET 0.98)
x2.49
1
39.30%
0.9800
x6.22
2
15.76%
0.9800
x15.51
3
6.32%
0.9800
x38.67
4
2.53%
0.9800
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 16.64%
(-10%: -12.64%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
College reach-rate (.40) beats MLB (.32): longer average runs, same mechanic
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
9 symbols mirror the MLB set with BB/ROE added
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
OUT
in-play out
40.76%
x2
0.20
0.40
0.79
26.9%
K
strikeout
19.18%
x2
0.20
0.40
0.79
12.2%
1B
single
15.28%
x3
0.30
0.89
2.68
16.9%
BB
walk
11.69%
x3
0.30
0.89
2.68
12.4%
2B
double
4.60%
x4
0.40
1.59
6.35
6.3%
HBP
hit by pitch
3.50%
x5
0.50
2.48
12.39
6.1%
HR
home run
2.80%
x8
0.79
6.35
50.77
8.3%
ROE
error chaos
1.70%
x12
1.19
14.28
171.34
7.5%
3B
triple
0.50%
x20
1.98
39.66
793.23
3.4%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.0992 normalizes the raw expectation (9.58 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 25.9% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±1.6pp
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHitas MLB at PA granularity
LiveDealPA cadence is slower but a 5-card board still fills inside 2 innings-halves
RANK
TARGET
EVENT COMPOSITION
2
7.69%
In-play out | ground 7.69%†
3
7.69%
In-play out | ground 7.69%†
4
7.69%
In-play out | ground 2.60%† · Walk 4.00%† · In-play out | pop 0.50%† · Reached on error 0.60%†
5
7.69%
Single 7.69%†
6
7.69%
Single 7.59%† · Triple 0.10%†
7
7.69%
In-play out | fly 7.69%†
8
7.69%
In-play out | fly 5.79%† · Home run 0.80%† · Reached on error 1.10%†
9
7.69%
Strikeout | swinging 7.69%†
T
7.69%
Strikeout | swinging 5.69%† · Hit by pitch 2.00%†
J
7.69%
Walk 7.69%†
Q
7.69%
Strikeout | looking 5.79% · Hit by pitch 1.50%† · Triple 0.40%†
K
7.69%
In-play out | line 5.69% · Home run 2.00%†
A
7.69%
Double 4.60% · In-play out | pop 3.10%†
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
21 boundary cuts (†) · 16% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.47pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: batter side x pitcher hand ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
whistle-hazard .227 measured from 29,704 event transitions
bust event Play segment ends (whistle)hazard 0.2270 per live eventgrowth per survival x1.2937 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 3
NHL API 120-game sample: mean 4.40 live events per faceoff-to-whistle segment
LADDER CASH OUT (g^k)
EVENTS SURVIVED (k)
P(REACH)
P x PAYOUT (TARGET 0.98)
x1.67
2
58.56%
0.9800
x2.17
3
45.27%
0.9800
x3.62
5
27.05%
0.9800
x6.06
7
16.16%
0.9800
x10.15
9
9.66%
0.9800
x28.42
13
3.45%
0.9800
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 10.38%
(-10%: -6.89%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Measured directly from event transitions; near-geometric segment lengths
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
10 legible symbols with real 9:1 save/goal tension
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
FACE
faceoff
18.51%
x2
0.10
0.21
0.41
6.1%
SOG
shot saved
17.77%
x2
0.10
0.21
0.41
5.8%
HIT
hit
15.42%
x3
0.15
0.46
1.39
8.8%
STOP
stoppage
14.41%
x3
0.15
0.46
1.39
8.2%
BLOCK
blocked
11.04%
x4
0.21
0.82
3.28
8.9%
MISS
missed shot
8.79%
x5
0.26
1.28
6.41
9.2%
GIVE
giveaway
4.93%
x8
0.41
3.28
26.28
8.5%
TAKE
takeaway
4.65%
x12
0.62
7.39
88.68
14.0%
PEN
penalty
2.44%
x20
1.03
20.53
410.56
11.9%
GOAL
goal
2.05%
x32
1.64
52.55
1681.63
18.6%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.0513 normalizes the raw expectation (18.51 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 20.5% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±2.5pp
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHitside splits keep ranks semantic
LiveDeal2 events/min fills boards; icing lulls are the only dead air
RANK
TARGET
EVENT COMPOSITION
2
7.69%
Faceoff won | home 7.69%†
3
7.69%
Faceoff won | home 1.57%† · Faceoff won | away 1.56%† · Shot saved | home shooter 1.20%† · Shot saved | away shooter 1.19%† · Missed shot 1.10%† · Hit | home 0.02%† · Hit | away 0.02%† · Goal 1.05%†
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
22 boundary cuts (†) · 30% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.31pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: event team x attacking zone ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
Par | par-3 15.85% · Par | par-4, GIR 0.41%† · Bogey | par-5 0.32%† · Birdie | par-3 0.08%†
HARD 8
4-4
2.78%
Par | par-5 2.78%†
SOFT 8
2-6 6-2 3-5 5-3
11.11%
Par | par-4, scramble 11.11%†
9
3-6 6-3 4-5 5-4
11.11%
Birdie | par-4 10.08% · Bogey | par-5 1.03%†
HARD 10
5-5
2.78%
Par | par-5 2.78%†
SOFT 10
4-6 6-4
5.56%
Birdie | par-5 5.56%†
11
5-6 6-5
5.56%
Bogey | par-4 5.56%†
12
6-6
2.78%
Eagle 0.51% · Albatross/Ace 0.01% · Par | par-5 2.26%†
calibration exact (rows equal true craps odds by construction) ·
pass-line edge locked at 1.41% · under ±10% single-event calibration drift the pass edge stays in
[-0.21%, 2.65%] ·
22 boundary cuts (†) · 32% of stream mass placed whole
DECLARED ATTRIBUTE SPLITS (12) · every "|" label is a real feed mark, not RNG
Par | par-4, GIR: par-type + front/back split of the .3840 par-4-par mass
Par | par-4, scramble: split
Par | par-4 (other): split
Par | par-3: par-type split (measured: 59,128/372,834 total)
Par | par-5: par-type split (measured)
Birdie | par-4: par-type split (measured: 37,591)
Birdie | par-5: par-type split (measured: 28,237)
Birdie | par-3: par-type split (measured: 11,255)
Bogey | par-4: par-type split (measured)
Bogey | par-3: par-type split
LIVECRASH survival map NATURAL
the bogey-free streak IS golf's native drama; hazard .162 from exact 372,834-hole counts
bust event Bogey or worse (streak breaker)hazard 0.1618 per hole playedgrowth per survival x1.1931 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 4
ShotLink 2022-23: 60,331 of 372,834 holes; survival .838/hole; P(bogey-free round)=4.2%
LADDER CASH OUT (g^k)
EVENTS SURVIVED (k)
P(REACH)
P x PAYOUT (TARGET 0.98)
x1.70
3
57.71%
0.9800
x2.03
4
48.37%
0.9800
x3.44
7
28.48%
0.9800
x5.84
10
16.77%
0.9800
x11.84
14
8.28%
0.9800
x28.61
19
3.42%
0.9800
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 9.35%
(-10%: -5.79%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Per-par hazard varies (par-3 .173 / par-4 .180 / par-5 .088); follow one player = authentic, or field-average
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
6 score symbols every golfer already knows; ACE line = true 1-in-2,302 jackpot
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
PAR
par
62.63%
x2
0.26
0.52
1.05
58.7%
BIRDIE
birdie
20.67%
x2
0.26
0.52
1.05
17.4%
BOGEY
bogey
14.40%
x3
0.39
1.18
3.54
20.8%
DOUBLE+
double or worse
1.78%
x3
0.39
1.18
3.54
2.3%
EAGLE
eagle
0.51%
x4
0.52
2.10
8.39
0.9%
ACE
albatross/ace
0.01%
x5
0.66
3.28
16.40
0.0%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.1312 normalizes the raw expectation (7.24 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 34.0% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±0.7pp
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map FORCEDFORCED
LiveHitpar-heavy mass quantizes into ranks only via par-type/nine cuts
LiveDealwave arrivals stall the 5-card board between groups; playable but not native
RANK
TARGET
EVENT COMPOSITION
2
7.69%
Par | par-3 7.69%†
3
7.69%
Par | par-3 7.69%†
4
7.69%
Par | par-3 0.47%† · Par | par-4, GIR 3.83%† · Birdie | par-4 2.39%† · Par | par-5 0.67%† · Bogey | par-5 0.27%† · Triple+ 0.07%†
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
22 boundary cuts (†) · 16% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.47pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: hole par-type x nine (front/back) ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
strike stream is binary land/miss at heart; rows need corner/position cuts and read samey
NO-ROLL RULE · Takedowns/knockdowns/sub attempts ride as overlay events (slots symbols, crash spikes), not dice rolls
ROLL
DICE
TRUE ODDS
EVENT COMPOSITION (share of stream)
2
1-1
2.78%
Head strike misses | clinch/ground 1.93%† · Body strike lands 0.85%†
3
1-2 2-1
5.56%
Head strike lands | blue 5.09%† · Leg strike misses 0.38%† · Leg strike lands 0.09%†
HARD 4
2-2
2.78%
Body strike misses 2.78%†
SOFT 4
1-3 3-1
5.56%
Head strike misses | red, distance 4.34%† · Leg strike misses 1.22%†
5
1-4 4-1 2-3 3-2
11.11%
Head strike lands | blue 11.11%†
HARD 6
3-3
2.78%
Body strike misses 2.78%†
SOFT 6
1-5 5-1 2-4 4-2
11.11%
Head strike misses | red, distance 11.11%†
7
1-6 6-1 2-5 5-2 3-4 4-3
16.67%
Head strike lands | red 16.20% · Body strike lands 0.34%† · Leg strike lands 0.12%†
HARD 8
4-4
2.78%
Body strike misses 2.69%† · Leg strike lands 0.08%†
SOFT 8
2-6 6-2 3-5 5-3
11.11%
Head strike misses | blue, distance 11.11%†
9
3-6 6-3 4-5 5-4
11.11%
Head strike misses | blue, distance 4.34%† · Head strike misses | clinch/ground 6.77%†
HARD 10
5-5
2.78%
Leg strike misses 2.78%†
SOFT 10
4-6 6-4
5.56%
Body strike lands 5.56%†
11
5-6 6-5
5.56%
Leg strike lands 5.56%†
12
6-6
2.78%
Leg strike misses 2.78%†
calibration exact (rows equal true craps odds by construction) ·
pass-line edge locked at 1.41% · under ±10% single-event calibration drift the pass edge stays in
[-0.25%, 2.68%] ·
22 boundary cuts (†) · 16% of stream mass placed whole
DECLARED ATTRIBUTE SPLITS (9) · every "|" label is a real feed mark, not RNG
Head strike lands | red: target split (72/15/13 of landed, UFCStats) x corner
Head strike lands | blue: corner split
Body strike lands: target split
Leg strike lands: target split
Head strike misses | red, distance: corner + position split (distance ~78%)
Head strike misses | blue, distance: corner + position split
Head strike misses | clinch/ground: position split
Body strike misses: target split
Leg strike misses: target split
LIVECRASH survival map NATURAL
the finish IS a crash: every surviving minute grows the pot, one punch ends it
bust event Fight ends (KO/TKO/sub)hazard 0.0560 per fight minutegrowth per survival x1.0593 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 13
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 9.29%
(-10%: -5.83%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Front-loaded (R1 .064, later .045) and division-dependent (HW 66% finish vs WSW 33%); production g_t conditions on round + weight class
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
KD/TD/SUB as rare symbols over the strike stream is legible fight grammar
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
MISS
strike misses
53.60%
x2
0.27
0.55
1.09
50.6%
HEAD
head strike lands
32.40%
x2
0.27
0.55
1.09
28.9%
BODY
body lands
6.75%
x3
0.41
1.23
3.69
9.4%
LEG
leg lands
5.85%
x3
0.41
1.23
3.69
8.0%
TD
takedown landed (1.26/fight)
0.76%
x4
0.55
2.18
8.74
1.3%
SUB
sub attempt (0.67/fight)
0.40%
x5
0.68
3.41
17.07
0.9%
KD
knockdown per attempt-tick (0.39/fight over 165)
0.24%
x8
1.09
8.74
69.90
0.8%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.1365 normalizes the raw expectation (6.96 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 27.2% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±0.6pp
overlay events (KD/TD/SUB) folded into the attempt-tick stream at their per-attempt rates
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map FORCEDDOESN'T-WORK
LiveHit9 sub-events for 13 ranks; heavy split load
LiveDeala 5-card board can die mid-hand to a 1-punch finish; hand-completion risk breaks the game contract
RANK
TARGET
EVENT COMPOSITION
2
7.69%
Head strike lands | red 7.69%†
3
7.69%
Head strike lands | red 7.69%†
4
7.69%
Head strike lands | red 0.82%† · Head strike lands | blue 0.82%† · Head strike misses | red, distance 0.07%† · Head strike misses | blue, distance 0.07%† · Head strike misses | clinch/ground 1.01%† · Body strike misses 0.56%† · Leg strike lands 4.37%†
5
7.69%
Head strike lands | blue 7.69%†
6
7.69%
Head strike lands | blue 7.69%†
7
7.69%
Head strike misses | red, distance 7.69%†
8
7.69%
Head strike misses | red, distance 7.69%†
9
7.69%
Head strike misses | blue, distance 7.69%†
T
7.69%
Head strike misses | blue, distance 7.69%†
J
7.69%
Head strike misses | clinch/ground 7.69%†
Q
7.69%
Body strike misses 7.69%†
K
7.69%
Leg strike misses 7.15% · Leg strike lands 0.54%†
A
7.69%
Body strike lands 6.75% · Leg strike lands 0.94%†
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
19 boundary cuts (†) · 14% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.49pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: corner x target ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
rally survival is the native tension; exact hazard table measured to the shot
bust event Rally endshazard 0.2100 per shot (from shot 5)growth per survival x1.2658 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 3
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 9.61%
(-10%: -6.02%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Explicitly non-geometric early: production uses the exact 4-step hazard table then constant .21 tail (WTA .255)
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
6 point-ending symbols every fan reads instantly
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
UE
unforced error end
27.82%
x2
0.21
0.42
0.85
19.0%
WINNER
rally winner
23.04%
x2
0.21
0.42
0.85
15.6%
SRV+
unreturned serve
20.27%
x3
0.32
0.95
2.85
25.2%
FORCED
forced error end
17.06%
x3
0.32
0.95
2.85
20.5%
ACE
ace
8.37%
x4
0.42
1.69
6.76
13.2%
DF
double fault
3.45%
x5
0.53
2.64
13.21
6.4%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.1057 normalizes the raw expectation (8.99 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 28.6% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±1.2pp
point-ending classes (winner/FE/UE measured from MCP terminators)
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHitlow split load; ace = ace of the deck
LiveDeal25s point cadence fills the board like a dealt street
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
21 boundary cuts (†) · 4% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.44pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: server end x deuce/ad court (real) ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
ball-by-ball outcomes are already discrete casino symbols; phase splits are broadcast-native
ROLL
DICE
TRUE ODDS
EVENT COMPOSITION (share of stream)
2
1-1
2.78%
Wicket 2.78%†
3
1-2 2-1
5.56%
Single | middle 3.97%† · Six 1.59%†
HARD 4
2-2
2.78%
Three runs 0.40% · Four 2.38%†
SOFT 4
1-3 3-1
5.56%
Wide 3.50% · Four 2.06%†
5
1-4 4-1 2-3 3-2
11.11%
Single | middle 11.11%†
HARD 6
3-3
2.78%
Bye/leg-bye 1.20% · Wicket 0.64%† · Two runs 0.94%†
SOFT 6
1-5 5-1 2-4 4-2
11.11%
Dot | powerplay 10.05% · Single | death 0.07%† · Six 0.64%† · No-ball 0.35%†
7
1-6 6-1 2-5 5-2 3-4 4-3
16.67%
Dot | middle 15.08% · Wicket 1.59%†
HARD 8
4-4
2.78%
Single | death 2.78%†
SOFT 8
2-6 6-2 3-5 5-3
11.11%
Single | powerplay 10.05% · Four 1.01%† · Two runs 0.00%† · No-ball 0.05%†
9
3-6 6-3 4-5 5-4
11.11%
Dot | death 8.37% · Single | death 2.74%†
HARD 10
5-5
2.78%
Single | death 2.78%†
SOFT 10
4-6 6-4
5.56%
Two runs 5.56%†
11
5-6 6-5
5.56%
Four 5.56%†
12
6-6
2.78%
Six 2.78%†
calibration exact (rows equal true craps odds by construction) ·
pass-line edge locked at 1.41% · under ±10% single-event calibration drift the pass edge stays in
[-0.12%, 2.60%] ·
21 boundary cuts (†) · 49% of stream mass placed whole
DECLARED ATTRIBUTE SPLITS (6) · every "|" label is a real feed mark, not RNG
Dot | powerplay: phase split (overs 1-6 ~30% of balls)
Dot | middle: phase split (7-15 ~45%)
Dot | death: phase split (16-20 ~25%)
Single | powerplay: phase split
Single | middle: phase split
Single | death: phase split
LIVECRASH survival map NATURAL
1-in-19 wicket hazard unchanged for 18 IPL seasons; the textbook crash sport
bust event Wicket fallshazard 0.0520 per deliverygrowth per survival x1.0549 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 13
Wisden: ~19 balls per dismissal, stable IPL 2008 through 2025
LADDER CASH OUT (g^k)
EVENTS SURVIVED (k)
P(REACH)
P x PAYOUT (TARGET 0.98)
x1.53
8
63.93%
0.9800
x2.00
13
48.95%
0.9800
x3.07
21
31.93%
0.9800
x5.24
31
18.72%
0.9800
x10.48
44
9.35%
0.9800
x25.98
61
3.77%
0.9800
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 8.76%
(-10%: -5.22%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
The most stable hazard in the survey; phase conditioning (PP .045 / mid .046 / death .080) available
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
7 symbols with SIX as jackpot; no-ball = free-hit bonus is a built-in feature
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
ONE
single
33.50%
x2
0.21
0.42
0.84
22.9%
DOT
dot
33.50%
x2
0.21
0.42
0.84
22.9%
FOUR
four
11.00%
x3
0.31
0.94
2.82
12.2%
RUNS
2s and 3s
6.90%
x3
0.31
0.94
2.82
7.3%
EXTRA
wide/no-ball/byes
5.10%
x4
0.42
1.67
6.68
7.5%
SIX
six
5.00%
x5
0.52
2.61
13.05
9.6%
W
wicket
5.00%
x8
0.84
6.68
53.45
17.6%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.1044 normalizes the raw expectation (9.10 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 25.5% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±1.6pp
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHitruns ladder maps to rank ladder almost 1:1
LiveDealsteady over rhythm deals streets like hands
Four 3.31%† · Dot | powerplay 2.36%† · Dot | death 0.68%† · Single | death 0.68%† · Bye/leg-bye 0.67%†
8
7.69%
Dot | powerplay 7.69%†
9
7.69%
Single | powerplay 7.69%†
T
7.69%
Single | powerplay 2.36%† · Wicket 5.00% · No-ball 0.33%†
J
7.69%
Dot | death 7.69%†
Q
7.69%
Single | death 7.69%†
K
7.69%
Two runs 6.50% · Wide 0.81%† · Bye/leg-bye 0.38%†
A
7.69%
Six 5.00% · Wide 2.69%†
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
23 boundary cuts (†) · 16% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.49pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: batting end x bowler type (pace/spin) ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
price is continuous: quantile cuts ARE the semantics; exact fairness by construction, renormalized per vol regime
ROLL
DICE
TRUE ODDS
EVENT COMPOSITION (share of stream)
2
1-1
2.78%
Down | >= 0.05% 0.30% · Down | < 0.01% 0.78%† · Flat | after up bar 0.33%† · Flat | after down bar 0.33%† · Down | 0.01-0.05% 1.03%†
3
1-2 2-1
5.56%
Flat | after up bar 5.56%†
HARD 4
2-2
2.78%
Up | 0.01-0.05% 2.78%†
SOFT 4
1-3 3-1
5.56%
Flat | after down bar 5.56%†
5
1-4 4-1 2-3 3-2
11.11%
Up | < 0.01% 6.33%† · Up | 0.01-0.05% 4.78%†
HARD 6
3-3
2.78%
Down | 0.01-0.05% 2.78%†
SOFT 6
1-5 5-1 2-4 4-2
11.11%
Down | < 0.01% 11.11%†
7
1-6 6-1 2-5 5-2 3-4 4-3
16.67%
Up | < 0.01% 16.67%†
HARD 8
4-4
2.78%
Down | 0.01-0.05% 2.78%†
SOFT 8
2-6 6-2 3-5 5-3
11.11%
Down | < 0.01% 11.11%†
9
3-6 6-3 4-5 5-4
11.11%
Flat | after up bar 11.11%†
HARD 10
5-5
2.78%
Down | 0.01-0.05% 2.78%†
SOFT 10
4-6 6-4
5.56%
Flat | after down bar 5.56%†
11
5-6 6-5
5.56%
Flat | after down bar 5.56%†
12
6-6
2.78%
Up | >= 0.05% 0.30% · Up | 0.01-0.05% 2.14%† · Down | 0.01-0.05% 0.33%†
calibration exact (rows equal true craps odds by construction) ·
pass-line edge locked at 1.41% · under ±10% single-event calibration drift the pass edge stays in
[-0.10%, 2.54%] ·
20 boundary cuts (†) · 1% of stream mass placed whole
DECLARED ATTRIBUTE SPLITS (8) · every "|" label is a real feed mark, not RNG
Up | >= 0.05%: magnitude buckets from RV-derived thresholds (quantile-exact by construction)
Up | 0.01-0.05%: magnitude bucket
Up | < 0.01%: magnitude bucket
Flat | after up bar: preceding-bar split (real mark)
Flat | after down bar: preceding-bar split
Down | < 0.01%: magnitude bucket
Down | 0.01-0.05%: magnitude bucket
Down | >= 0.05%: magnitude bucket
LIVECRASH survival map NATURAL
crash was literally invented for this stream (bustabit); run-survival hazard tunable
bust event Down bar ends the runhazard 0.3500 per 1s bargrowth per survival x1.5385 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 2
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 12.27%
(-10%: -8.84%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Vol clustering breaks iid: renormalize thresholds by (30d RV / 45%) so the hazard stays pinned; bid-ask bounce makes long runs die slightly faster (house-safe direction)
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar FORCED
magnitude-bin symbols have no story between MOON and REKT; playable, not legible
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
FLAT
flat
34.00%
x2
0.22
0.44
0.88
24.4%
UP
up small
23.00%
x2
0.22
0.44
0.88
16.2%
DOWN
down small
23.00%
x3
0.33
0.99
2.96
30.6%
PUMP
up 0.01-0.05%
9.70%
x3
0.33
0.99
2.96
11.1%
DUMP
down 0.01-0.05%
9.70%
x4
0.44
1.75
7.01
16.3%
MOON
up >=0.05%
0.30%
x5
0.55
2.74
13.68
0.5%
REKT
down >=0.05%
0.30%
x8
0.88
7.01
56.05
0.8%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.1095 normalizes the raw expectation (8.68 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 21.4% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±1.3pp
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHitquantile-exact ranks; 24/7 uptime makes it the filler deck
LiveDealsame exactness; board fills in 5 seconds or slower gears
RANK
TARGET
EVENT COMPOSITION
2
7.69%
Down | < 0.01% 7.69%†
3
7.69%
Down | < 0.01% 7.69%†
4
7.69%
Down | < 0.01% 7.62%† · Up | >= 0.05% 0.08%†
5
7.69%
Up | < 0.01% 7.69%†
6
7.69%
Up | < 0.01% 7.69%†
7
7.69%
Up | < 0.01% 7.62%† · Up | >= 0.05% 0.08%†
8
7.69%
Flat | after up bar 7.69%†
9
7.69%
Flat | after up bar 7.69%†
T
7.69%
Flat | after up bar 1.62%† · Flat | after down bar 1.62%† · Down | 0.01-0.05% 2.01%† · Up | 0.01-0.05% 2.01%† · Down | >= 0.05% 0.30% · Up | >= 0.05% 0.15%†
J
7.69%
Flat | after down bar 7.69%†
Q
7.69%
Flat | after down bar 7.69%†
K
7.69%
Down | 0.01-0.05% 7.69%†
A
7.69%
Up | 0.01-0.05% 7.69%†
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
19 boundary cuts (†) · 0% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.59pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: direction x preceding-bar direction ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
Up | >= 2 ticks 1.11%† · Down | >= 2 ticks 1.11%† · Unchanged 0.56%†
SOFT 4
1-3 3-1
5.56%
Up | >= 2 ticks 5.56%†
5
1-4 4-1 2-3 3-2
11.11%
Up | 1 tick 11.11%†
HARD 6
3-3
2.78%
Down | >= 2 ticks 2.78%†
SOFT 6
1-5 5-1 2-4 4-2
11.11%
Down | 1 tick 11.11%†
7
1-6 6-1 2-5 5-2 3-4 4-3
16.67%
Up | 1 tick 16.67%†
HARD 8
4-4
2.78%
Down | >= 2 ticks 2.78%†
SOFT 8
2-6 6-2 3-5 5-3
11.11%
Down | 1 tick 11.11%†
9
3-6 6-3 4-5 5-4
11.11%
Down | 1 tick 10.78%† · Unchanged 0.33%†
HARD 10
5-5
2.78%
Unchanged 2.78%†
SOFT 10
4-6 6-4
5.56%
Up | >= 2 ticks 5.56%†
11
5-6 6-5
5.56%
Down | >= 2 ticks 5.56%†
12
6-6
2.78%
Up | >= 2 ticks 2.78%†
calibration exact (rows equal true craps odds by construction) ·
pass-line edge locked at 1.41% · under ±10% single-event calibration drift the pass edge stays in
[-0.50%, 2.90%] ·
19 boundary cuts (†) · 0% of stream mass placed whole
DECLARED ATTRIBUTE SPLITS (5) · every "|" label is a real feed mark, not RNG
Up | >= 2 ticks: tick-magnitude buckets (quantile-exact)
Up | 1 tick: bucket
Unchanged: bucket
Down | 1 tick: bucket
Down | >= 2 ticks: bucket
LIVECRASH survival map NATURAL
same construction as crypto at 1-min gear; circuit breakers = house-neutral voids
bust event Down bar ends the runhazard 0.5000 per 1-min bargrowth per survival x2.0000 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 1
1-min direction ~50/50 (16% annualized RV -> sigma_1min .051%)
LADDER CASH OUT (g^k)
EVENTS SURVIVED (k)
P(REACH)
P x PAYOUT (TARGET 0.98)
x2.00
1
49.00%
0.9800
x4.00
2
24.50%
0.9800
x8.00
3
12.25%
0.9800
x16.00
4
6.12%
0.9800
x32.00
5
3.06%
0.9800
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 11.80%
(-10%: -7.80%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Near-memoryless in RTH; vol regime renormalization as crypto
five near-indistinguishable magnitude bins; no symbol identity, no jackpot story
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
UP
uptick
33.02%
x2
0.24
0.49
0.98
26.4%
DOWN
downtick
33.02%
x2
0.24
0.49
0.98
26.4%
SURGE
2+ ticks up
14.96%
x3
0.37
1.10
3.29
20.3%
SLIDE
2+ ticks down
14.96%
x3
0.37
1.10
3.29
20.3%
FLAT
unchanged
4.00%
x4
0.49
1.95
7.81
6.7%
LIMIT
big move
0.05%
x5
0.61
3.05
15.25
0.1%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.1220 normalizes the raw expectation (7.79 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 18.0% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±0.9pp
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHitquantile-exact ranks during session hours
LiveDealas livehit; halts void the hand by rule
RANK
TARGET
EVENT COMPOSITION
2
7.69%
Up | 1 tick 7.69%†
3
7.69%
Up | 1 tick 7.69%†
4
7.69%
Up | 1 tick 7.69%†
5
7.69%
Up | 1 tick 7.69%†
6
7.69%
Up | 1 tick 2.23%† · Down | 1 tick 2.23%† · Unchanged 3.23%†
7
7.69%
Down | 1 tick 7.69%†
8
7.69%
Down | 1 tick 7.69%†
9
7.69%
Down | 1 tick 7.69%†
T
7.69%
Down | 1 tick 7.69%†
J
7.69%
Up | >= 2 ticks 7.69%†
Q
7.69%
Up | >= 2 ticks 7.31%† · Unchanged 0.38%†
K
7.69%
Down | >= 2 ticks 7.69%†
A
7.69%
Down | >= 2 ticks 7.31%† · Unchanged 0.38%†
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
17 boundary cuts (†) · 0% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.91pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: direction x preceding bar ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal
calibration exact (rows equal true craps odds by construction) ·
pass-line edge locked at 1.41% · under ±10% single-event calibration drift the pass edge stays in
[0.49%, 2.24%] ·
20 boundary cuts (†) · 58% of stream mass placed whole
DECLARED ATTRIBUTE SPLITS (12) · every "|" label is a real feed mark, not RNG
Kill | HS, T, 1st half: HS x side x half split (real)
Kill | HS, T, 2nd half: split
Kill | HS, CT, 1st half: split
Kill | HS, CT, 2nd half: split
Kill | body, T, 1st half: split
Kill | body, T, 2nd half: split
Kill | body, CT, 1st half: split
Kill | body, CT, 2nd half: split
Bomb plant: .45 plants / 9.05 ticks per round
Defuse / explode: .3 resolutions / 9.05
LIVECRASH survival map FORCED
round-end hazard is severely back-loaded; playable only with the kill-index hazard table and it still telegraphs
bust event Round ends at this killhazard 0.1400 per killgrowth per survival x1.1628 (= 1/(1-h))instant bust 2.00% (the entire house edge)median events to 2x 5
HLTV: mean 7.3 kills/round -> average hazard 1/7.3
LADDER CASH OUT (g^k)
EVENTS SURVIVED (k)
P(REACH)
P x PAYOUT (TARGET 0.98)
x1.57
3
62.33%
0.9800
x2.13
5
46.10%
0.9800
x3.34
8
29.32%
0.9800
x5.25
11
18.65%
0.9800
x11.17
16
8.77%
0.9800
x27.61
22
3.55%
0.9800
The multiplier advances one ladder step per surviving event, so the reachable cash-outs ARE the ladder; at every one of them expected return is exactly 0.98. A finer ladder (smaller visual increments between events) interpolates the same curve without changing the math.
martingale construction: P(reach m) x m = 0.98 at every step boundary, so edge is exactly 2.0% at any cash-out ·
if the true hazard drifts +10% while growth stays calibrated, realized edge at 2x becomes 9.72%
(-10%: -6.24%) - this is the recalibration tolerance
Strongly BACK-LOADED (near 0 for kills 1-3, steep from kill 5): production must use the kill-index hazard table, not a constant
LIVESLOTS paytable, shipped pay grammar NATURAL
HS/ACE/KNIFE/CLUTCH are native fan vocabulary with true rarities
SYMBOL
EVENT
P (PER REEL)
BASE
SINGLE
PAIR
TRIPLE
RTP SHARE
KILL
body kill
32.82%
x2
0.23
0.46
0.91
24.5%
HS
headshot kill
29.10%
x2
0.23
0.46
0.91
21.6%
PLANT
bomb plant per round
27.86%
x3
0.34
1.03
3.09
40.9%
OPENER
opening kill tick
8.48%
x3
0.34
1.03
3.09
10.0%
CLUTCH
1vX won
1.24%
x4
0.46
1.83
7.31
1.8%
ACE
5k round
0.31%
x5
0.57
2.86
14.28
0.6%
KNIFE
knife kill
0.19%
x8
0.91
7.31
58.50
0.5%
payout = m x sum(base^count) over distinct symbols, 3 reels = 3 different live games ·
line multiplier m = 0.1143 normalizes the raw expectation (8.31 stakes) to
RTP exactly 95.0% · P(spin nets a profit) = 24.2% ·
RTP under ±10% symbol drift: ±2.1pp
mixed per-kill and per-round symbol rates; reels bind to 3 concurrent matches
LIVEHIT / LIVEDEAL event to rank map NATURALNATURAL
LiveHitkill attributes (HS, weapon, side) give real rank semantics
LiveDeal5-card board per round maps to the round's kill sequence
every rank = exactly 1/13 by construction; ten-value density = 16/52 exactly ·
21 boundary cuts (†) · 7% of mass placed whole ·
under ±10% single-event drift the basic-strategy blackjack edge moves at most
0.45pp (first-order Griffin effect-of-removal) ·
LiveDeal suit mark: side x weapon class ·
already-dealt cards are skipped (rejection), which reproduces the exact without-replacement deal