{ "version": "1.0", "generated": "2026-07-06", "report": "lf-maps Report 1 (mapping + fairness)", "pipeline_task": 4098, "edge_targets": { "liveroll_pass_line": 0.0141, "livecrash_instant_bust": 0.02, "liveslots_rtp": 0.95, "deck_rank_target": 0.07692307692307693 }, "sports": { "nfl": { "title": "NFL", "unit": "scrimmage play (resolved)", "events_per_game": 124.3, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "18 measured exclusive outcomes, none oversized; penalty = authentic no-roll" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "drive-survival is the native tension of football; h=.176 measured" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "9 legible play-class symbols; 3 reels = 3 Sunday games" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "rank ladder follows play quality; low split load" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "1 play = 1 board card at ~40s cadence fits flop/turn/river pacing" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": "Penalty no-play (12.3%), kneel, spike = NO-ROLL push (flag wipes the snap, bets stand)", "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Interception", "share": 0.011607473177950427, "cut": false }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.007052349241583427, "cut": false }, { "label": "Incomplete pass", "share": 0.005040695523492485, "cut": true }, { "label": "Sack", "share": 0.004077259834751431, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush 4-9 yd", "share": 0.02261761622888154, "cut": true }, { "label": "Completion 0-4 yd", "share": 0.03293793932667401, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Rushing TD", "share": 0.015330188679245285, "cut": false }, { "label": "Completion 5-9 yd", "share": 0.004350875570353964, "cut": true }, { "label": "Completion 0-4 yd", "share": 0.007769145394006772, "cut": true }, { "label": "QB scramble", "share": 0.00032756813417209225, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush stuffed (<=0 yd)", "share": 0.055555555555555546, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush 1-3 yd", "share": 0.11111111111111109, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "QB scramble", "share": 0.027777777777777773, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush 4-9 yd", "share": 0.11111111111111109, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "Incomplete pass", "share": 0.16666666666666663, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Sack", "share": 0.027777777777777773, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Completion 5-9 yd", "share": 0.11111111111111109, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Completion 10-19 yd", "share": 0.09764613392526822, "cut": false }, { "label": "Completion 0-4 yd", "share": 0.013464977185842863, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush 1-3 yd", "share": 0.02423618818596624, "cut": true }, { "label": "Sack", "share": 0.0035415895918115294, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush 10+ yd", "share": 0.0386029411764706, "cut": false }, { "label": "Rush stuffed (<=0 yd)", "share": 0.01617030459982737, "cut": true }, { "label": "QB scramble", "share": 0.0007823097792575772, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "11", "dice": [ "5-6", "6-5" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Completion 20+ yd", "share": 0.03989779874213837, "cut": false }, { "label": "Completion 0-4 yd", "share": 0.015657756813417176, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "12", "dice": [ "6-6" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Passing TD", "share": 0.024267018128005923, "cut": false }, { "label": "Sack", "share": 0.0017958441238131717, "cut": true }, { "label": "QB scramble", "share": 0.0017149155259586757, "cut": true } ] } ], "attribute_splits": [], "pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ -0.00361077870879134, 0.027574333931632444 ] }, "livecrash": { "bust_event": "Drive ends (any cause)", "unit": "scrimmage play", "hazard": 0.1758, "growth_per_event": 1.2132977432661975, "instant_bust": 0.02, "cdf": [ { "x": 1.2, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 1.2133, "fair_p": 0.8166666666666667, "achieved_p": 0.807716, "delta_pp": -0.8950666666666662 }, { "x": 1.5, "steps": 3, "mult_at_step": 1.7861, "fair_p": 0.6533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.54868603431824, "delta_pp": -10.46472990150933 }, { "x": 2, "steps": 4, "mult_at_step": 2.1671, "fair_p": 0.49, "achieved_p": 0.45222702948509347, "delta_pp": -3.7772970514906525 }, { "x": 2.5, "steps": 5, "mult_at_step": 2.6293, "fair_p": 0.392, "achieved_p": 0.37272551770161405, "delta_pp": -1.9274482298385964 }, { "x": 3, "steps": 6, "mult_at_step": 3.1901, "fair_p": 0.32666666666666666, "achieved_p": 0.30720037168967035, "delta_pp": -1.9466294976996312 }, { "x": 4, "steps": 8, "mult_at_step": 4.6961, "fair_p": 0.245, "achieved_p": 0.20868294509888943, "delta_pp": -3.6317054901110564 }, { "x": 5, "steps": 9, "mult_at_step": 5.6978, "fair_p": 0.196, "achieved_p": 0.1719964833505047, "delta_pp": -2.400351664949532 }, { "x": 7, "steps": 11, "mult_at_step": 8.3877, "fair_p": 0.13999999999999999, "achieved_p": 0.11683818120016393, "delta_pp": -2.316181879983606 }, { "x": 10, "steps": 12, "mult_at_step": 10.1767, "fair_p": 0.098, "achieved_p": 0.09629802894517513, "delta_pp": -0.17019710548248773 }, { "x": 15, "steps": 15, "mult_at_step": 18.1765, "fair_p": 0.06533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.053915697565909415, "delta_pp": -1.1417635767423913 }, { "x": 25, "steps": 17, "mult_at_step": 26.7575, "fair_p": 0.0392, "achieved_p": 0.03662523744105654, "delta_pp": -0.25747625589434553 } ], "basis": "nflverse 2024: 5,944 drive-ends / 33,812 real snaps; mean drive 5.69 snaps", "stationarity": "Hazard varies by down/distance/field position; production uses state-conditional g_t = 1/(1-h_t) from the same pbp table", "edge_drift10": { "+10%": 0.10097539236813924, "-10%": -0.06632611911291786 } }, "liveslots": { "model": "payout = m x sum(base^count) per distinct symbol; every spin pays, RTP is exact", "m": 0.07137285583238877, "rtp": 0.95, "p_net_win": 0.24160936338284705, "symbols": [ { "sym": "GRIND", "event": "rush 1-3 / comp 0-4 / scramble", "p": 0.27707447570821186, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.14274571166477754, "pay2": 0.28549142332955507, "pay3": 0.5709828466591101 }, { "sym": "INC", "event": "incomplete", "p": 0.16404719820379304, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.14274571166477754, "pay2": 0.28549142332955507, "pay3": 0.5709828466591101 }, { "sym": "RUSH+", "event": "rush 4-9", "p": 0.14770935842927432, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.2141185674971663, "pay2": 0.6423557024914989, "pay3": 1.9270671074744967 }, { "sym": "SHORT", "event": "comp 5-9", "p": 0.11035207566999475, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.2141185674971663, "pay2": 0.6423557024914989, "pay3": 1.9270671074744967 }, { "sym": "CHUNK", "event": "10-19 yd gain", "p": 0.10805904552620264, "base": 4, "pay1": 0.28549142332955507, "pay2": 1.1419656933182203, "pay3": 4.567862773272881 }, { "sym": "STUFF", "event": "stuff/sack", "p": 0.10404624277456646, "base": 5, "pay1": 0.35686427916194385, "pay2": 1.7843213958097193, "pay3": 8.921606979048596 }, { "sym": "BIG20", "event": "20+ yd gain", "p": 0.03812162614054363, "base": 8, "pay1": 0.5709828466591101, "pay2": 4.567862773272881, "pay3": 36.54290218618305 }, { "sym": "TD", "event": "pass+rush TD", "p": 0.03272345101036641, "base": 12, "pay1": 0.8564742699886652, "pay2": 10.277691239863982, "pay3": 123.33229487836779 }, { "sym": "TO", "event": "INT/fumble", "p": 0.01786652653704677, "base": 20, "pay1": 1.4274571166477754, "pay2": 28.54914233295551, "pay3": 570.9828466591101 } ] }, "livehit": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Incomplete pass", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Incomplete pass", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Incomplete pass", "share": 0.01787960501767569, "cut": true }, { "label": "Rush 1-3 yd", "share": 0.058397221121629775, "cut": true }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.000646250783771304, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307677 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Rush 1-3 yd", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Rush 4-9 yd", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Rush 4-9 yd", "share": 0.05679698108562438, "cut": true }, { "label": "Passing TD", "share": 0.020126095837452555, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 5-9 yd", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 5-9 yd", "share": 0.03859425067606294, "cut": true }, { "label": "Completion 10-19 yd", "share": 0.020691565273252516, "cut": true }, { "label": "Rushing TD", "share": 0.015302295344301645, "cut": false }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.002334965629459835, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 10-19 yd", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Rush stuffed (<=0 yd)", "share": 0.07171075661349202, "cut": false }, { "label": "Passing TD", "share": 0.0041775497093794675, "cut": true }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.0010347706002054459, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 0-4 yd", "share": 0.06981047157073561, "cut": false }, { "label": "Interception", "share": 0.0071126053523413255, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 20+ yd", "share": 0.03990598589788468, "cut": false }, { "label": "QB scramble", "share": 0.03060459068860329, "cut": false }, { "label": "Interception", "share": 0.004489134908697829, "cut": true }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.0019233654278911381, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Rush 10+ yd", "share": 0.038605790868630294, "cut": false }, { "label": "Sack", "share": 0.037205580837125565, "cut": false }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.0011117052173210745, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "bj_edge_drift10_pct": 0.4496419012085373 }, "livedeal": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Incomplete pass", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Incomplete pass", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Incomplete pass", "share": 0.01787960501767569, "cut": true }, { "label": "Rush 1-3 yd", "share": 0.058397221121629775, "cut": true }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.000646250783771304, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307677 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Rush 1-3 yd", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Rush 4-9 yd", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Rush 4-9 yd", "share": 0.05679698108562438, "cut": true }, { "label": "Passing TD", "share": 0.020126095837452555, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 5-9 yd", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 5-9 yd", "share": 0.03859425067606294, "cut": true }, { "label": "Completion 10-19 yd", "share": 0.020691565273252516, "cut": true }, { "label": "Rushing TD", "share": 0.015302295344301645, "cut": false }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.002334965629459835, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 10-19 yd", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Rush stuffed (<=0 yd)", "share": 0.07171075661349202, "cut": false }, { "label": "Passing TD", "share": 0.0041775497093794675, "cut": true }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.0010347706002054459, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 0-4 yd", "share": 0.06981047157073561, "cut": false }, { "label": "Interception", "share": 0.0071126053523413255, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 20+ yd", "share": 0.03990598589788468, "cut": false }, { "label": "QB scramble", "share": 0.03060459068860329, "cut": false }, { "label": "Interception", "share": 0.004489134908697829, "cut": true }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.0019233654278911381, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Rush 10+ yd", "share": 0.038605790868630294, "cut": false }, { "label": "Sack", "share": 0.037205580837125565, "cut": false }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.0011117052173210745, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "suit_mark": "possession side (home/away) x field half = 4 real suits; board fills one card per resolved play", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.4496419012085373 }, "sources": [ { "name": "nflverse-data play-by-play 2024 (nflfastR)", "url": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2024.csv.gz", "what": "Canonical NFL play-by-play, 2024 regular season (272 games, 49k rows). All probabilities computed directly from this file with pandas" }, { "name": "TeamRankings NFL plays per game", "url": "https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/plays-per-game", "what": "Cross-check: published ~62-63 offensive plays per team per game matches computed 62.2 (excl. penalty no-plays)" }, { "name": "Pro-Football-Reference 2024 season", "url": "https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/index.htm", "what": "Cross-check reference for league totals (computed comp% 65.4% matches PFR published ~65.3%, sacks 1,240 vs published ~1,247)" } ] }, "ncaaf": { "title": "NCAAF", "unit": "scrimmage play (resolved)", "events_per_game": 137.6, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "same granularity as NFL with 2x the TD rate; verdict carries" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "drive hazard .178 measured; more explosive plays = livelier multipliers" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "8 legible symbols; Saturday slates give 3+ concurrent games all day" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "as NFL" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "as NFL" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": "Accepted penalty (8.0% of events) = NO-ROLL push", "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Interception", "share": 0.011896431070678797, "cut": false }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.007897630710786765, "cut": false }, { "label": "Completion 10-19 yd", "share": 0.007139524809223925, "cut": true }, { "label": "Sack", "share": 0.0008441911870882834, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Incompletion", "share": 0.049140813311562115, "cut": true }, { "label": "Completion <=0 yd", "share": 0.006414742243993424, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush TD", "share": 0.024592622213336, "cut": false }, { "label": "Rush 1-3 yd", "share": 0.0028824685927555382, "cut": true }, { "label": "Sack", "share": 0.00030268697168655753, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush 4-9 yd", "share": 0.047241383140613435, "cut": true }, { "label": "Completion <=0 yd", "share": 0.008314172414942103, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Incompletion", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Completion 10-19 yd", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush 4-9 yd", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush 1-3 yd", "share": 0.16666666666666663, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Sack", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Completion 1-9 yd", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush stuffed", "share": 0.0869739078276517, "cut": false }, { "label": "Rush 10-19 yd", "share": 0.024137203283459377, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush 10-19 yd", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Rush 20+ yd", "share": 0.022793162051384586, "cut": false }, { "label": "Completion 10-19 yd", "share": 0.032762393504170956, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "11", "dice": [ "5-6", "6-5" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Completion 20+ yd", "share": 0.03368989303209038, "cut": false }, { "label": "Completion 1-9 yd", "share": 0.020649360747331397, "cut": true }, { "label": "Completion <=0 yd", "share": 0.0008497450764772367, "cut": true }, { "label": "Sack", "share": 0.0003665566996565277, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "12", "dice": [ "6-6" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Pass TD", "share": 0.02349295211436569, "cut": false }, { "label": "Rush 10-19 yd", "share": 0.002368733824297198, "cut": true }, { "label": "Completion <=0 yd", "share": 0.00191609183911488, "cut": true } ] } ], "attribute_splits": [], "pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ -0.003046657921390805, 0.027068730295852772 ] }, 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"events": [ { "label": "Incompletion", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Incompletion", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Rush 4-9 yd", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Rush 4-9 yd", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 1-9 yd", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 1-9 yd", "share": 0.05483739493536556, "cut": true }, { "label": "Rush stuffed", "share": 0.01005083090457479, "cut": true }, { "label": "Interception", "share": 0.011896431070678797, "cut": false }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.00013842001245796784, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307711 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Rush stuffed", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Completion 10-19 yd", "share": 0.06767969609117265, "cut": false }, { "label": "Pass TD", "share": 0.0004537100408339191, "cut": true }, { "label": "Rush 20+ yd", "share": 0.00015380001384201846, "cut": true }, { "label": "Completion <=0 yd", "share": 0.0008766600788995289, "cut": true }, { "label": "Fumble lost", "share": 0.0077592106983287975, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Rush 10-19 yd", "share": 0.054283714885534344, "cut": false }, { "label": "Rush 20+ yd", "share": 0.02263936203754257, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Sack", "share": 0.029291212636209138, "cut": false }, { "label": "Rush TD", "share": 0.024592622213336, "cut": false }, { "label": "Pass TD", "share": 0.023039242073531772, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 } ], "suit_mark": "possession side x field half", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.4867619657207924 }, "sources": [ { "name": "cfbstats.com 2024 National Team Leaders (SportSource Analytics)", "url": "https://cfbstats.com/2024/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category09/sort01.html", "what": "PRIMARY: summed all 134 FBS team rows, 1,717 team-games, 14 stat categories" }, { "name": "TeamRankings CFB team stats 2024", "url": "https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/plays-per-game", "what": "Cross-check + spread: plays/gm 68.5 (57.8-79.9), points 26.6 (12.7-42.9)" }, { "name": "Bless Your Chart post 070", "url": "https://blessyourchart.substack.com/p/070-college-football-games-are-still", "what": "24.6 combined drives/game 2023" }, { "name": "FOX Sports (AP) 2-pt conversions", "url": "https://www.foxsports.com/articles/cfb/college-football-coaches-are-going-for-two-and-converting-at-the-highest-rate-since-the-1970s", "what": "45.8% 2-pt success 2024" } ] }, "nba": { "title": "NBA", "unit": "chance (possession segment)", "events_per_game": 225.4, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "11-way chance partition with real zone/miss-type splits; 14s cadence" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "scoreless-possession hazard .49: punchy 2-possession median runs" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "8 legible symbols; any night has 3+ concurrent games" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "modest split load; Made-3 = face-card tier is instantly legible" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "board fills a card every ~14s; hand completes inside 90s" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": null, "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Bonus FTs", "share": 0.015, "cut": false }, { "label": "Made 2 | rim", "share": 0.003688888888888922, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.009088888888888848, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.05188888888888893, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.00366666666666661, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.054, "cut": false }, { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 3PA)", "share": 0.0003333333333333799, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.0012222222222224542, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Miss | off reb (new chance)", "share": 0.091, "cut": false }, { "label": "Shooting foul, FTs", "share": 0.011444444444444465, "cut": true }, { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.006888888888888917, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.0017777777777776976, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 3PA)", "share": 0.16666666666666663, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Made 2 | jumper", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Made 2 | rim", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Shooting foul, FTs", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "11", "dice": [ "5-6", "6-5" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "12", "dice": [ "6-6" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "And-one", "share": 0.02, "cut": false }, { "label": "Made 2 | jumper", "share": 0.0060888888888889214, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.0016888888888888474, "cut": true } ] } ], "attribute_splits": [ "Made 2 | rim: zone split: rim makes 14.0 of 28.2 2PM (B-R shooting)", "Made 2 | jumper: zone split", "Miss | def reb (off 3PA): miss-type split: 24.1 of 47.6 misses are 3s", "Miss | def reb (off 2PA): miss-type split" ], "pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ -0.0030905431213112955, 0.027089514250675517 ] }, "livecrash": { "bust_event": "Possession ends scoreless", "unit": "possession", "hazard": 0.49, "growth_per_event": 1.9607843137254901, "instant_bust": 0.02, "cdf": [ { "x": 1.2, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 1.9608, "fair_p": 0.8166666666666667, "achieved_p": 0.4998, "delta_pp": -31.686666666666664 }, { "x": 1.5, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 1.9608, "fair_p": 0.6533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.4998, 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0.0011538461538461164, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307672 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Made 2 | rim", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Made 2 | rim", "share": 0.03787692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.03904615384615388, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | off reb (new chance)", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.073, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bonus FTs", "share": 0.003923076923076946, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Shooting foul, FTs", "share": 0.067, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bonus FTs", "share": 0.009923076923076937, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "suit_mark": "offense side x halfcourt side of floor", 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jumper", "share": 0.0562636044087899, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.020659472514287024, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "FT trip", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "FT trip", "share": 0.055563674401790594, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.02135940252128633, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.03626560420880988, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.022366994069823783, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.01829047864444326, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 } ], "bj_edge_drift10_pct": 0.4532804222064351 }, "livedeal": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.014736987839677565, "cut": true }, { "label": "Made 2 | rim", "share": 0.0562636044087899, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.005922484674609459, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 3PA)", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 3PA)", "share": 0.07106212455677509, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.005860952366301829, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Made 2 | rim", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Made 2 | jumper", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Made 2 | jumper", "share": 0.0562636044087899, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.020659472514287024, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "FT trip", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "FT trip", "share": 0.055563674401790594, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.02135940252128633, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.03626560420880988, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.022366994069823783, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.01829047864444326, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 } ], "suit_mark": "offense side x floor side", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.4532804222064351 }, "sources": [ { "name": "Sports-Reference CBB 2024-25 school stats (all 364 D1 teams)", "url": "https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/men/2025-school-stats.html", "what": "Primary: aggregated 12,056 team-games for all volumes, percentages, four factors, possessions" }, { "name": "Basketball-Reference NBA 2024-25 League Averages", "url": "https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025.html", "what": "NBA comparison: pace 98.8, eFG% .543, TOV% 12.6, ORB% 25.2, FT/FGA .189, 3P% .360" }, { "name": "Basketball-Reference Four Factors methodology", "url": "https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html", "what": "POSS = FGA - ORB + TOV + 0.475*FTA" }, { "name": "Sleeper blog (ESPN Stats & Info)", "url": "https://sleeper.com/blog/college-basketball-overtime-rules/", "what": "OT frequency 346/6,243 games 2023-24" }, { "name": "NCAA.com 1v16 history", "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2026-03-21/history-1-seed-vs-16-seed-march-madness", "what": "1 seeds 162-2 vs 16 seeds" } ] }, "wnba": { "title": "WNBA", "unit": "chance (possession segment)", "events_per_game": 180.0, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "same 11-way chance partition as NBA with real WNBA splits; ~13s cadence" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "scoreless-possession hazard .534: slightly punchier busts than NBA, still short runs" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "8 legible symbols; in-season slate carries concurrent games" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "modest split load; Made-3 = face-card tier is instantly legible" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "board fills a card every ~13s; hand completes inside ~90s" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": null, "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Bonus FTs", "share": 0.0167, "cut": false }, { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.01107777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Shooting foul, FTs", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.011133333333333384, "cut": true }, { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.016644444444444385, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 3PA)", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 3PA)", "share": 0.02558888888888891, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.0021888888888888583, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Miss | off reb (new chance)", "share": 0.1067, "cut": false }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.004411111111111074, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.16666666666666663, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Made 2 | jumper", "share": 0.1105, "cut": false }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.0006111111111110762, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Made 2 | rim", "share": 0.1062, "cut": false }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.0049111111111110745, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Shooting foul, FTs", "share": 0.018844444444444455, "cut": true }, { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.007822222222222307, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.0011111111111110072, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.05552222222222223, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 3.333333333359681e-05, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "11", "dice": [ "5-6", "6-5" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "12", "dice": [ "6-6" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "And-one", "share": 0.0222, "cut": false }, { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.005577777777777768, "cut": true } ] } ], "attribute_splits": [ "Made 2 | rim: zone split ~49% of 2PM at rim (est; WNBA zone tables thin)", "Made 2 | jumper: zone split (est)", "Made 3: 3PM 8.2/team-game / 90.0 chances (HHS 2025)", "And-one: ~2.0/team-game from FTA composition (est)", "Shooting foul, FTs: ~6.7 non-and1 shooting-foul trips / 90.0 (est)", "Bonus FTs: ~1.5 penalty trips / 90.0 (est)", "Miss | def reb (off 3PA): miss-type split: 16.5 of 37.9 misses are 3s (HHS 2025)", "Miss | def reb (off 2PA): miss-type split", "Miss | off reb (new chance): OREB% 25.4 -> ~9.6 off rebs / 90.0 (HHS 2025)", "Turnover | steal: STL 7.5/team-game (live-ball TO) / 90.0 (HHS 2025)", "Turnover | dead ball: TOV 14.2 - STL 7.5 = 6.7 dead-ball / 90.0 (HHS 2025)" ], "pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ -0.0029076906541596337, 0.026998442566638525 ] }, "livecrash": { "bust_event": "Possession ends scoreless", "unit": "possession", "hazard": 0.534, "growth_per_event": 2.145922746781116, "instant_bust": 0.02, "cdf": [ { "x": 1.2, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 2.1459, "fair_p": 0.8166666666666667, "achieved_p": 0.45668, "delta_pp": -35.998666666666665 }, { "x": 1.5, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 2.1459, "fair_p": 0.6533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.45668, "delta_pp": -19.665333333333336 }, { "x": 2, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 2.1459, "fair_p": 0.49, "achieved_p": 0.45668, "delta_pp": -3.3320000000000016 }, { "x": 2.5, "steps": 2, "mult_at_step": 4.605, "fair_p": 0.392, "achieved_p": 0.21281287999999995, "delta_pp": -17.918712000000006 }, { "x": 3, "steps": 2, "mult_at_step": 4.605, "fair_p": 0.32666666666666666, "achieved_p": 0.21281287999999995, "delta_pp": -11.385378666666671 }, { "x": 4, "steps": 2, "mult_at_step": 4.605, "fair_p": 0.245, "achieved_p": 0.21281287999999995, "delta_pp": -3.218712000000004 }, { "x": 5, "steps": 3, "mult_at_step": 9.8819, "fair_p": 0.196, "achieved_p": 0.09917080207999998, "delta_pp": -9.682919792000003 }, { "x": 7, "steps": 3, "mult_at_step": 9.8819, "fair_p": 0.13999999999999999, "achieved_p": 0.09917080207999998, "delta_pp": -4.082919792 }, { "x": 10, "steps": 4, "mult_at_step": 21.2059, "fair_p": 0.098, "achieved_p": 0.046213593769279984, "delta_pp": -5.178640623072002 }, { "x": 15, "steps": 4, "mult_at_step": 21.2059, "fair_p": 0.06533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.046213593769279984, "delta_pp": -1.9119739564053342 }, { "x": 25, "steps": 5, "mult_at_step": 45.5062, "fair_p": 0.0392, "achieved_p": 0.02153553469648447, "delta_pp": -1.7664465303515529 } ], "basis": "Her Hoop Stats 2025 (est): PPP 1.01 (81.5 pts / 80.4 poss); scoring possessions ~46.6% (FGM 29.7 + FT-only ~7.8 / 80.4) => scoreless hazard .534", "stationarity": "Higher scoreless hazard than NBA (WNBA PPP 1.01 vs 1.15; FG% .439 vs .467); empirically near-iid, short ~2-possession median runs", "edge_drift10": { "+10%": 0.13230042918454932, "-10%": -0.09230042918454928 } }, "liveslots": { "model": "payout = m x sum(base^count) per distinct symbol; every spin pays, RTP is exact", "m": 0.08001152366237713, "rtp": 0.95, "p_net_win": 0.2506253472859998, "symbols": [ { "sym": "BRICK", "event": "miss + def reb", "p": 0.3145, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.16002304732475425, "pay2": 0.3200460946495085, "pay3": 0.640092189299017 }, { "sym": "BUCKET", "event": "made 2", "p": 0.2167, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.16002304732475425, "pay2": 0.3200460946495085, "pay3": 0.640092189299017 }, { "sym": "OREB", "event": "off reb", "p": 0.1067, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.24003457098713138, "pay2": 0.7201037129613941, "pay3": 2.1603111388841825 }, { "sym": "TRIPLE", "event": "made 3", "p": 0.0911, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.24003457098713138, "pay2": 0.7201037129613941, "pay3": 2.1603111388841825 }, { "sym": "FTS", "event": "FT trip", "p": 0.0911, "base": 4, "pay1": 0.3200460946495085, "pay2": 1.280184378598034, "pay3": 5.120737514392136 }, { "sym": "STEAL", "event": "live-ball TO", "p": 0.0833, "base": 5, "pay1": 0.40005761831188563, "pay2": 2.0002880915594283, "pay3": 10.001440457797141 }, { "sym": "TOV", "event": "dead-ball TO", "p": 0.0744, "base": 8, "pay1": 0.640092189299017, "pay2": 5.120737514392136, "pay3": 40.96590011513709 }, { "sym": "AND1", "event": "and-one", "p": 0.0222, "base": 12, "pay1": 0.9601382839485255, "pay2": 11.521659407382305, "pay3": 138.25991288858768 } ] }, "livehit": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.02395384615384613, "cut": true }, { "label": "Made 2 | jumper", "share": 0.03357692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "And-one", "share": 0.01939230769230775, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 3PA)", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 3PA)", "share": 0.05977692307692305, "cut": true }, { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.01417692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "And-one", "share": 0.0028076923076922507, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bonus FTs", "share": 0.000161538461538345, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.0769230769230767 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Made 2 | jumper", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | off reb (new chance)", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | off reb (new chance)", "share": 0.029776923076923062, "cut": true }, { "label": "Made 2 | rim", "share": 0.02927692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.006376923076923058, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bonus FTs", "share": 0.01149230769230776, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Made 2 | rim", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Shooting foul, FTs", "share": 0.0744, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bonus FTs", "share": 0.0025230769230769473, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.0744, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bonus FTs", "share": 0.0025230769230769473, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "bj_edge_drift10_pct": 0.4253477031014025 }, "livedeal": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 2PA)", "share": 0.02395384615384613, "cut": true }, { "label": "Made 2 | jumper", "share": 0.03357692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "And-one", "share": 0.01939230769230775, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 3PA)", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | def reb (off 3PA)", "share": 0.05977692307692305, "cut": true }, { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.01417692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "And-one", "share": 0.0028076923076922507, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bonus FTs", "share": 0.000161538461538345, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.0769230769230767 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Made 2 | jumper", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | off reb (new chance)", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Miss | off reb (new chance)", "share": 0.029776923076923062, "cut": true }, { "label": "Made 2 | rim", "share": 0.02927692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.006376923076923058, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bonus FTs", "share": 0.01149230769230776, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Made 2 | rim", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Made 3", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Turnover | steal", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Shooting foul, FTs", "share": 0.0744, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bonus FTs", "share": 0.0025230769230769473, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Turnover | dead ball", "share": 0.0744, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bonus FTs", "share": 0.0025230769230769473, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "suit_mark": "offense side x halfcourt side of floor", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.4253477031014025 }, "sources": [ { "name": "Her Hoop Stats 2025 WNBA League Summary", "url": "https://herhoopstats.com/stats/wnba/league/2025/", "what": "2025 regular-season league per-game team averages (13 teams, 44-game RS): PTS 81.5, Pace 80.7, ORtg 100.9, FG 29.7/67.6 (.439), 3P 8.2/24.7 (.332), FT 14.2/18.4 (.774), OREB% 25.4, DREB% 75.2, TOV 14.2, STL 7.5, AST 20.2, PF 17.5" }, { "name": "Basketball-Reference WNBA 2025 (cross-ref)", "url": "https://www.basketball-reference.com/wnba/years/2025.html", "what": "Canonical WNBA reference for the same 2025 league averages; cited as cross-reference (direct fetch was rate-limited/403 at author time, HHS used as the read source)" } ] }, "soccer": { "title": "SOCCER", "unit": "on-ball event (Opta)", "events_per_game": 1650, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "Opta's 1,650-event stream is the richest outcome space of any sport" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "pass-sequence survival IS tiki-taka tension; hazard .29 measured" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "FORCED", "reason": "stream is 57% passes: symbols need curated event-classes and the reel reads pass-heavy between shots" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "26-event taxonomy stacks into ranks with low split load" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "17 events/min fills a board in seconds; World Cup shootouts = native side-bet" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": null, "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Yellow card", "share": 0.003070004703247205, "cut": false }, { "label": "Own goal", "share": 9.57841467413128e-05, "cut": false }, { "label": "Red card", "share": 8.964413733481839e-05, "cut": false }, { "label": "Tackle", "share": 0.024522344790454436, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Ball recovery", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Corner", "share": 0.0073680112877932925, "cut": false }, { "label": "Pass complete | def third", "share": 0.0072183997252550924, "cut": true }, { "label": "Pass incomplete", "share": 0.010461075137478251, "cut": true }, { "label": "Take-on success", "share": 0.001767197040679222, "cut": true }, { "label": "Offside", "share": 0.0009630945865719102, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Throw-in", "share": 0.033156050795069815, "cut": false }, { "label": "Foul", "share": 0.015964024456885467, "cut": false }, { "label": "Interception", "share": 0.006435480303600256, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Pass complete | final third", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Shot blocked", "share": 0.005157607901455304, "cut": false }, { "label": "Pass complete | mid, right", "share": 0.019302688682830194, "cut": true }, { "label": "Interception", "share": 0.0031894278862035774, "cut": true }, { "label": "Offside", "share": 0.00012805330728892905, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Pass complete | mid, left", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "Pass complete | def third", "share": 0.16666666666666663, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Shot on target (saved)", "share": 0.006508409970884075, "cut": false }, { "label": "Pass complete | mid, left", "share": 0.019302688682830194, "cut": true }, { "label": "Tackle", "share": 3.769283552320507e-05, "cut": true }, { "label": "Take-on fail", "share": 0.000318530043543595, "cut": true }, { "label": "Offside", "share": 0.0016104562449967014, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Pass complete | mid, right", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Pass incomplete", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Save", "share": 0.004052406208286311, "cut": false }, { "label": "Ball recovery", "share": 0.011984547915882979, "cut": true }, { "label": "Take-on success", "share": 0.01174082365360848, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Goal kick", "share": 0.01228001881298882, "cut": false }, { "label": "Pass complete | final third", "share": 0.033793110882157, "cut": true }, { "label": "Clearance", "share": 0.005599313355925849, "cut": true }, { "label": "Interception", "share": 0.003883112504483869, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "11", "dice": [ "5-6", "6-5" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Shot off target", "share": 0.007982012228442734, "cut": false }, { "label": "Aerial duel", "share": 0.033156050795069815, "cut": false }, { "label": "Take-on fail", "share": 0.01441749253204299, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "12", "dice": [ "6-6" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.0024560037625977645, "cut": false }, { "label": "Penalty awarded", "share": 0.0002210403386337988, "cut": false }, { "label": "Clearance", "share": 0.025100733676546205, "cut": true } ] } ], "attribute_splits": [ "Pass complete | def third: zone split ~30% of completes (Opta zones; est)", "Pass complete | mid, left: zone+side split", "Pass complete | mid, right: zone+side split", "Pass complete | final third: zone split ~25% (est)" ], "pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ -0.002973040463377652, 0.02703236579249424 ] }, "livecrash": { "bust_event": "Possession sequence ends", "unit": "pass", "hazard": 0.29, "growth_per_event": 1.4084507042253522, "instant_bust": 0.02, "cdf": [ { "x": 1.2, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 1.4085, "fair_p": 0.8166666666666667, "achieved_p": 0.6958, "delta_pp": -12.086666666666668 }, { "x": 1.5, "steps": 2, "mult_at_step": 1.9837, "fair_p": 0.6533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.49401799999999996, "delta_pp": -15.931533333333336 }, { "x": 2, "steps": 3, "mult_at_step": 2.794, "fair_p": 0.49, "achieved_p": 0.35075277999999993, "delta_pp": -13.924722000000006 }, { "x": 2.5, "steps": 3, "mult_at_step": 2.794, "fair_p": 0.392, "achieved_p": 0.35075277999999993, "delta_pp": -4.124722000000008 }, { "x": 3, "steps": 4, "mult_at_step": 3.9352, "fair_p": 0.32666666666666666, "achieved_p": 0.24903447379999996, "delta_pp": -7.76321928666667 }, { "x": 4, "steps": 5, "mult_at_step": 5.5425, "fair_p": 0.245, "achieved_p": 0.17681447639799996, "delta_pp": -6.8185523602000035 }, { "x": 5, "steps": 5, "mult_at_step": 5.5425, "fair_p": 0.196, "achieved_p": 0.17681447639799996, "delta_pp": -1.9185523602000043 }, { "x": 7, "steps": 6, "mult_at_step": 7.8064, "fair_p": 0.13999999999999999, "achieved_p": 0.12553827824257996, "delta_pp": -1.4461721757420025 }, { "x": 10, "steps": 7, "mult_at_step": 10.9949, 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0.0073680112877932925, "cut": false }, { "label": "Own goal", "share": 9.57841467413128e-05, "cut": false }, { "label": "Red card", "share": 4.5341607922501015e-06, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307665 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Pass incomplete", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Pass incomplete", "share": 0.044649109325512394, "cut": true }, { "label": "Clearance", "share": 0.030700047032472054, "cut": false }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.0015739205650924966, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Ball recovery", "share": 0.06754010347143852, "cut": false }, { "label": "Shot on target (saved)", "share": 0.006508409970884075, "cut": false }, { "label": "Yellow card", "share": 0.0028745634807543514, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Aerial duel", "share": 0.033156050795069815, "cut": false }, { "label": "Throw-in", "share": 0.033156050795069815, "cut": false }, { "label": "Goal kick", "share": 0.010610975332937313, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Tackle", "share": 0.02456003762597764, "cut": false }, { "label": "Take-on fail", "share": 0.014736022575586585, "cut": false }, { "label": "Take-on success", "share": 0.013508020694287703, "cut": false }, { "label": "Interception", "share": 0.013508020694287703, "cut": false }, { "label": "Shot blocked", "share": 0.005157607901455304, "cut": false }, { "label": "Save", "share": 0.004052406208286311, "cut": false }, { "label": "Offside", "share": 0.0009772061124642718, "cut": true }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.00011760479555505099, "cut": true }, { "label": "Penalty awarded", "share": 0.0002210403386337988, "cut": false }, { "label": "Red card", "share": 8.510997654256829e-05, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 } ], "bj_edge_drift10_pct": 0.44564814567910466 }, "livedeal": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Pass complete | def third", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Pass complete | def third", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Pass complete | def third", "share": 0.020038912545767826, "cut": true }, { "label": "Pass complete | mid, left", "share": 0.05349072287086434, "cut": true }, { "label": "Goal kick", "share": 0.0016690434800515075, "cut": true }, { "label": "Offside", "share": 0.0017243980263932691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Pass complete | final third", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Pass complete | final third", "share": 0.06798114507019114, "cut": true }, { "label": "Shot off target", "share": 0.007982012228442734, "cut": false }, { "label": "Yellow card", "share": 0.00019544122249285414, "cut": true }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.0007644784019502168, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Pass complete | mid, left", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Pass complete | mid, right", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Pass complete | mid, right", "share": 0.05349072287086434, "cut": true }, { "label": "Foul", "share": 0.015964024456885467, "cut": false }, { "label": "Corner", "share": 0.0073680112877932925, "cut": false }, { "label": "Own goal", "share": 9.57841467413128e-05, "cut": false }, { "label": "Red card", "share": 4.5341607922501015e-06, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307665 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Pass incomplete", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Pass incomplete", "share": 0.044649109325512394, "cut": true }, { "label": "Clearance", "share": 0.030700047032472054, "cut": false }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.0015739205650924966, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Ball recovery", "share": 0.06754010347143852, "cut": false }, { "label": "Shot on target (saved)", "share": 0.006508409970884075, "cut": false }, { "label": "Yellow card", "share": 0.0028745634807543514, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Aerial duel", "share": 0.033156050795069815, "cut": false }, { "label": "Throw-in", "share": 0.033156050795069815, "cut": false }, { "label": "Goal kick", "share": 0.010610975332937313, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Tackle", "share": 0.02456003762597764, "cut": false }, { "label": "Take-on fail", "share": 0.014736022575586585, "cut": false }, { "label": "Take-on success", "share": 0.013508020694287703, "cut": false }, { "label": "Interception", "share": 0.013508020694287703, "cut": false }, { "label": "Shot blocked", "share": 0.005157607901455304, "cut": false }, { "label": "Save", "share": 0.004052406208286311, "cut": false }, { "label": "Offside", "share": 0.0009772061124642718, "cut": true }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.00011760479555505099, "cut": true }, { "label": "Penalty awarded", "share": 0.0002210403386337988, "cut": false }, { "label": "Red card", "share": 8.510997654256829e-05, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 } ], "suit_mark": "team in possession x pitch half", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.44564814567910466 }, "sources": [ { "name": "Opta Analyst PL Tactical Trends", "url": "https://theanalyst.com/articles/premier-league-teams-still-more-direct-2025-26", "what": "941.0 passes/match 2023-24; 893.4 2024-25" }, { "name": "Cintia & Pappalardo arXiv:1705.00885", "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.00885", "what": "Opta ~1600 events/match, up to 2200" }, { "name": "Wikipedia 2023-24 Premier League", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%9324_Premier_League", "what": "Record 1246 goals, 3.28/match" }, { "name": "premierleague.com 2024-25 in numbers", "url": "https://www.premierleague.com/en/news/4316617", "what": "1115 goals, 2.93/match" }, { "name": "Opta Analyst Most Cards in a PL Season", "url": "https://theanalyst.com/articles/most-cards-in-a-premier-league-season", "what": "Record 4.2 yellows/match 2023-24" }, { "name": "MyFootballFacts PL cards + penalties 2023-24", "url": "https://www.myfootballfacts.com/premier-league/all-time-premier-league/cards/premier-league-red-and-yellow-cards-2023-24/", "what": "1602 yellows, 28 second-yellow reds, 96 pens scored" }, { "name": "OptaJoe own goals", "url": "https://x.com/OptaJoe/status/1792294424598196617", "what": "49 own goals 2023-24" }, { "name": "ESPN hat-trick seasons", "url": "https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/40023627/ranking-premier-league-seasons-most-hat-tricks", "what": "17 hat-tricks 2023-24" }, { "name": "statschecker PL corners", "url": "https://www.statschecker.com/stats/corners-per-game/premier-league-corner-stats", "what": "9.95 corners/match" }, { "name": "Opta Analyst WC penalty shootouts", "url": "https://theanalyst.com/articles/world-cup-penalty-shootouts-the-facts", "what": "Qatar 2022 record 5 shootouts" }, { "name": "Opta Analyst sequences/possessions definitions", "url": "https://theanalyst.com/articles/possessions-and-sequences-in-football", "what": "Opta sequence definitions" }, { "name": "Opta Analyst PL Playing Styles 2024-25", "url": "https://theanalyst.com/articles/analysing-premier-league-playing-styles-2024-25", "what": "City 5.1 passes/sequence, next 4.4" }, { "name": "TotalFootballAnalysis (FBref) PL 2024-25 passing", "url": "https://totalfootballanalysis.com/data-analysis/premier-league-vertical-progression-transitional-threat-data-analysis-statistics", "what": "Completion by distance: short 89.4/med 87.1/long 51.7" } ] }, "mlb": { "title": "MLB", "unit": "pitch", "events_per_game": 292, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "pitch outcomes + location/spray marks give exact-granularity rows; the shipped demo already plays this way" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "PA-resolution hazard .257 measured; count-state conditioning available" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "the shipped 9-symbol set is the template; pays recalibrated to true Statcast rates" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "ball/strike mass quantizes into low ranks, hits take the faces" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "metronomic pitch clock = ideal board-fill rhythm" } }, 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0.06523914348609165, "cut": false }, { "label": "Ball | high", "share": 0.08885331198719232, "cut": false }, { "label": "Foul | third-base side", "share": 0.005280946345585149, "cut": true }, { "label": "Foul | first-base side", "share": 0.005280946345585149, "cut": true }, { "label": "Single", "share": 0.0020123185022123467, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Single", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Ball | outside", "share": 0.08885331198719232, "cut": false }, { "label": "Foul | straight back", "share": 0.022257799123918752, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Called strike | heart", "share": 0.08154892935761457, "cut": false }, { "label": "In-play out | air", "share": 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{ "label": "Called strike | heart", "share": 0.004625852434537618, "cut": true }, { "label": "In-play out | air", "share": 0.019850371761518628, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Ball | low", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Ball | high", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Ball | inside", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Called strike | edge", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Called strike | heart", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | ground", "share": 0.06523914348609164, "cut": false }, { "label": "In-play out | air", "share": 0.0010082972860637018, "cut": true }, { "label": "Single", "share": 0.004248703067994577, "cut": true }, { "label": "Home run", "share": 0.006426933082927022, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Foul | third-base side", "share": 0.06083650190114067, "cut": false }, { "label": "Single", "share": 0.016086575021936264, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Foul | first-base side", "share": 0.06083650190114067, "cut": false }, { "label": "Double", "share": 0.011006603962377424, "cut": false }, { "label": "Home run", "share": 0.0012776896907371752, "cut": true }, { "label": "Hit by pitch", "share": 0.0028016810086051625, "cut": false }, { "label": "Triple", "share": 0.0010006003602161294, "cut": false } ], "p": 0.07692307692307657 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Foul | straight back", "share": 0.060736441865119055, "cut": false }, { "label": "In-play out | air", "share": 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0.011930235064115365, "cut": true }, { "label": "Called strike | edge", "share": 0.004725912470559234, "cut": true }, { "label": "Called strike | heart", "share": 0.004625852434537618, "cut": true }, { "label": "In-play out | air", "share": 0.019850371761518628, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Ball | low", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Ball | high", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Ball | inside", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Called strike | edge", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Called strike | heart", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | ground", "share": 0.06523914348609164, "cut": false }, { "label": "In-play out | air", "share": 0.0010082972860637018, "cut": true }, { "label": "Single", "share": 0.004248703067994577, "cut": true }, { "label": "Home run", "share": 0.006426933082927022, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Foul | third-base side", "share": 0.06083650190114067, "cut": false }, { "label": "Single", "share": 0.016086575021936264, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Foul | first-base side", "share": 0.06083650190114067, "cut": false }, { "label": "Double", "share": 0.011006603962377424, "cut": false }, { "label": "Home run", "share": 0.0012776896907371752, "cut": true }, { "label": "Hit by pitch", "share": 0.0028016810086051625, "cut": false }, { "label": "Triple", "share": 0.0010006003602161294, "cut": false } ], "p": 0.07692307692307657 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Foul | straight back", "share": 0.060736441865119055, "cut": false }, { "label": "In-play out | air", "share": 0.016186635057957883, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Swinging strike | fastball", "share": 0.060736441865119055, "cut": false }, { "label": "Single", "share": 0.016186635057957883, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Swinging strike | offspeed", "share": 0.06063638182909745, "cut": false }, { "label": "In-play out | air", "share": 0.01628669509397949, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "suit_mark": "pitcher hand (L/R) x batter side = real 4-way suit", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.30637402576423506 }, "sources": [ { "name": "Baseball-Reference 2024 MLB season (team standard batting league totals)", "url": "https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024.shtml", "what": "2024 league totals: 182,449 PA, 163,687 AB, 39,823 H, 7,771 2B, 697 3B, 5,453 HR, 14,929 BB, 41,197 SO, 2,020 HBP, 452 SH, 1,261 SF, 21,343 R, 2,429 games" }, { "name": "Baseball-Reference 2024 Pitches Batting", "url": "https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-pitches-batting.shtml", "what": "pitch volume (23,650 pitches/team, 3.89 pit/PA) and strike breakdown: Str% 64.2, L/Str 25.4%, S/Str 18.9%, F/Str 28.4%" }, { "name": "Baseball Savant Statcast search (field_error events, 2024)", "url": "https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search", "what": "1,471 reached-on-error events in 2024 regular season" }, { "name": "Baseball-Reference 2024 Advanced Batting", "url": "https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-advanced-batting.shtml", "what": "cross-check: K% 22.6, BB% 8.2, HR% 3.0, BABIP .291" }, { "name": "Baseball Almanac - MLB Grand Slams League Totals", "url": "https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/higs5.shtml", "what": "2024 grand slams: AL 50, NL 81 (131 total)" }, { "name": "ESPN 2024 MLB No-Hitters", "url": "https://www.espn.com/mlb/history/nohitters/_/year/2024", "what": "4 regular-season no-hitters in 2024" } ] }, "ncaa_baseball": { "title": "NCAA BSB", "unit": "plate appearance", "events_per_game": 80.7, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "same grammar as MLB one level up; HBP/error chaos is a real college flavor" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "out hazard .599 measured from 124k PAs; CWS drama fits" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "9 symbols mirror the MLB set with BB/ROE added" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "as MLB at PA granularity" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "PA cadence is slower but a 5-card board still fills inside 2 innings-halves" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": null, "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Triple", "share": 0.004999999999999999, "cut": false }, { "label": "Reached on error", "share": 0.016999999999999998, "cut": false }, { "label": "Hit by pitch", "share": 0.005777777777777773, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Strikeout | looking", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Hit by pitch", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "In-play out | line", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Walk", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "In-play out | ground", "share": 0.013333333333333332, "cut": true }, { "label": "In-play out | pop", "share": 0.014444444444444437, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "In-play out | fly", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "In-play out | ground", "share": 0.16666666666666663, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "In-play out | fly", "share": 0.023888888888888897, "cut": true }, { "label": "Strikeout | looking", "share": 0.00244444444444445, "cut": true }, { "label": "In-play out | line", "share": 0.0014444444444444494, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Single", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Strikeout | swinging", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Strikeout | swinging", "share": 0.0228888888888889, "cut": true }, { "label": "Walk", "share": 0.004888888888888872, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Double", "share": 0.04599999999999999, "cut": false }, { "label": "In-play out | pop", "share": 0.006888888888888901, "cut": true }, { "label": "Hit by pitch", "share": 0.0014444444444444528, "cut": true }, { "label": "Walk", "share": 0.0010000000000000284, "cut": true }, { "label": "Home run", "share": 0.0002222222222222243, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "11", "dice": [ "5-6", "6-5" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Single", "share": 0.041888888888888885, "cut": true }, { "label": "In-play out | pop", "share": 0.013666666666666657, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "12", "dice": [ "6-6" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Home run", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] } ], "attribute_splits": [ "Strikeout | swinging: K-type split ~70/30 (MLB convention; college split not public)", "Strikeout | looking: K-type split", "In-play out | ground: GO/AO-style split .44/.33/.14/.09 of outs (MLB shares)", "In-play out | fly: split", "In-play out | line: split", "In-play out | pop: split" ], "pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ -0.00247825310827543, 0.026591457077100866 ] }, "livecrash": { "bust_event": "Batter out", "unit": "plate appearance", "hazard": 0.599, "growth_per_event": 2.4937655860349124, "instant_bust": 0.02, "cdf": [ { "x": 1.2, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 2.4938, "fair_p": 0.8166666666666667, "achieved_p": 0.39298, "delta_pp": -42.36866666666666 }, { "x": 1.5, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 2.4938, "fair_p": 0.6533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.39298, "delta_pp": -26.035333333333334 }, { "x": 2, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 2.4938, "fair_p": 0.49, "achieved_p": 0.39298, "delta_pp": -9.702 }, { "x": 2.5, "steps": 2, "mult_at_step": 6.2189, "fair_p": 0.392, "achieved_p": 0.15758498, "delta_pp": -23.441502 }, { "x": 3, "steps": 2, "mult_at_step": 6.2189, "fair_p": 0.32666666666666666, "achieved_p": 0.15758498, "delta_pp": -16.908168666666665 }, { "x": 4, "steps": 2, "mult_at_step": 6.2189, "fair_p": 0.245, "achieved_p": 0.15758498, "delta_pp": -8.741501999999999 }, { "x": 5, "steps": 2, "mult_at_step": 6.2189, "fair_p": 0.196, "achieved_p": 0.15758498, "delta_pp": -3.8415019999999993 }, { "x": 7, "steps": 3, "mult_at_step": 15.5084, "fair_p": 0.13999999999999999, "achieved_p": 0.06319157698000001, "delta_pp": -7.680842301999998 }, { "x": 10, "steps": 3, "mult_at_step": 15.5084, "fair_p": 0.098, "achieved_p": 0.06319157698000001, "delta_pp": -3.4808423019999992 }, { "x": 15, "steps": 3, "mult_at_step": 15.5084, "fair_p": 0.06533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.06319157698000001, "delta_pp": -0.21417563533333156 }, { "x": 25, "steps": 4, "mult_at_step": 38.6743, "fair_p": 0.0392, "achieved_p": 0.025339822368980004, "delta_pp": -1.3860177631019994 } ], "basis": "pooled 2025 D1 totals: P(reach) = .401 -> out hazard .599", "stationarity": "College reach-rate (.40) beats MLB (.32): longer average runs, same mechanic", "edge_drift10": { "+10%": 0.1663890274314217, "-10%": -0.12638902743142122 } }, "liveslots": { "model": "payout = m x sum(base^count) per distinct symbol; every spin pays, RTP is exact", "m": 0.09915319248471541, "rtp": 0.95, "p_net_win": 0.2590288610711744, "symbols": [ { "sym": "OUT", "event": "in-play out", "p": 0.4075924075924075, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.19830638496943082, "pay2": 0.39661276993886163, "pay3": 0.7932255398777233 }, { "sym": "K", "event": "strikeout", "p": 0.19180819180819178, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.19830638496943082, "pay2": 0.39661276993886163, "pay3": 0.7932255398777233 }, { "sym": "1B", "event": "single", "p": 0.15284715284715283, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.2974595774541462, "pay2": 0.8923787323624387, "pay3": 2.677136197087316 }, { "sym": "BB", "event": "walk", "p": 0.11688311688311688, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.2974595774541462, "pay2": 0.8923787323624387, "pay3": 2.677136197087316 }, { "sym": "2B", "event": "double", "p": 0.045954045954045945, "base": 4, "pay1": 0.39661276993886163, "pay2": 1.5864510797554465, "pay3": 6.345804319021786 }, { "sym": "HBP", "event": "hit by pitch", "p": 0.03496503496503497, "base": 5, "pay1": 0.49576596242357707, "pay2": 2.478829812117885, "pay3": 12.394149060589426 }, { "sym": "HR", "event": "home run", "p": 0.02797202797202797, "base": 8, "pay1": 0.7932255398777233, "pay2": 6.345804319021786, "pay3": 50.76643455217429 }, { "sym": "ROE", "event": "error chaos", "p": 0.016983016983016984, "base": 12, "pay1": 1.1898383098165848, "pay2": 14.27805971779902, "pay3": 171.33671661358824 }, { "sym": "3B", "event": "triple", "p": 0.004995004995004994, "base": 20, "pay1": 1.9830638496943083, "pay2": 39.66127699388616, "pay3": 793.2255398777232 } ] }, "livehit": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | ground", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | ground", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | ground", "share": 0.02597402597402591, "cut": true }, { "label": "Walk", "share": 0.03996003996003993, "cut": true }, { "label": "In-play out | pop", "share": 0.004995004995004965, "cut": true }, { "label": "Reached on error", "share": 0.0059940059940059255, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307675 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Single", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Single", "share": 0.07592407592407589, "cut": true }, { "label": "Triple", "share": 0.000999000999000933, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307682 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | fly", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | fly", "share": 0.057942057942057916, "cut": true }, { "label": "Home run", "share": 0.007992007992007968, "cut": true }, { "label": "Reached on error", "share": 0.010989010989011056, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Strikeout | swinging", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Strikeout | swinging", "share": 0.056943056943056916, "cut": true }, { "label": "Hit by pitch", "share": 0.01998001998002002, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Walk", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Strikeout | looking", "share": 0.05794205794205794, "cut": false }, { "label": "Hit by pitch", "share": 0.01498501498501494, "cut": true }, { "label": "Triple", "share": 0.003996003996004062, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | line", "share": 0.05694305694305694, "cut": false }, { "label": "Home run", "share": 0.01998001998002, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Double", "share": 0.045954045954045945, "cut": false }, { "label": "In-play out | pop", "share": 0.030969030969030992, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "bj_edge_drift10_pct": 0.4653342802069674 }, "livedeal": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | ground", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | ground", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | ground", "share": 0.02597402597402591, "cut": true }, { "label": "Walk", "share": 0.03996003996003993, "cut": true }, { "label": "In-play out | pop", "share": 0.004995004995004965, "cut": true }, { "label": "Reached on error", "share": 0.0059940059940059255, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307675 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Single", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Single", "share": 0.07592407592407589, "cut": true }, { "label": "Triple", "share": 0.000999000999000933, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307682 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | fly", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | fly", "share": 0.057942057942057916, "cut": true }, { "label": "Home run", "share": 0.007992007992007968, "cut": true }, { "label": "Reached on error", "share": 0.010989010989011056, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Strikeout | swinging", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Strikeout | swinging", "share": 0.056943056943056916, "cut": true }, { "label": "Hit by pitch", "share": 0.01998001998002002, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Walk", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Strikeout | looking", "share": 0.05794205794205794, "cut": false }, { "label": "Hit by pitch", "share": 0.01498501498501494, "cut": true }, { "label": "Triple", "share": 0.003996003996004062, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "In-play out | line", "share": 0.05694305694305694, "cut": false }, { "label": "Home run", "share": 0.01998001998002, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Double", "share": 0.045954045954045945, "cut": false }, { "label": "In-play out | pop", "share": 0.030969030969030992, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "suit_mark": "batter side x pitcher hand", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.4653342802069674 }, "sources": [ { "name": "NCAA D1 Baseball Statistics Trends 1970-2018", "url": "http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/baseball_RB/reports/TrendsYBY.pdf", "what": "official national per-team-game averages by year; documents 1974 aluminum, 1999 BESR, 2011 BBCOR (scoring 6.98->5.58), 2015 flat-seam regime changes" }, { "name": "WarrenNolan 2025 D1 team stats (all 307 teams)", "url": "https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2025/stats-off-runs-per-game", "what": "national anchors: 6.72 R/G scored, 6.84 allowed, 9.33 H/G, 1.15 E/G" }, { "name": "ACC 2025 official baseball statistics", "url": "https://theacc.com/stats.aspx?path=baseball&year=2025", "what": "16-team season batting totals (power stratum)" }, { "name": "Sun Belt / MVC / Patriot / Big South 2025 stats pages", "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/stats.aspx?path=baseball&year=2025", "what": "39 more team season totals (mid/low-major strata)" }, { "name": "NCAA.com D1 team triple plays", "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/stats/baseball/d1/current/team/598", "what": "12 triple plays in 2026 season" }, { "name": "Baseball-Reference MLB year-by-year batting/fielding", "url": "https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/bat.shtml", "what": "MLB 2025 contrast: BA .245, 4.45 R/G, K 22.2%, BB 8.4%, HBP 1.05%, HR 3.09%, 0.50 E/G" }, { "name": "Retrosheet bases-loaded PA study (Ruane)", "url": "https://retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/basesloaded_pa.htm", "what": "MLB bases-loaded 2.39% of PA (1921-2010)" } ] }, "nhl": { "title": "NHL", "unit": "RTSS event", "events_per_game": 303.8, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "10 measured RTSS classes + symmetric side splits; goal on 12 at .0205 vs .0278 target is the largest semantic gap" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "whistle-hazard .227 measured from 29,704 event transitions" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "10 legible symbols with real 9:1 save/goal tension" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "side splits keep ranks semantic" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "2 events/min fills boards; icing lulls are the only dead air" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": null, "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Penalty", "share": 0.024397560243975606, "cut": false }, { "label": "Takeaway", "share": 0.003380217533802166, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Hit | away", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Blocked shot | away", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Stoppage | frozen/out", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Faceoff won | home", "share": 0.09259074092590741, "cut": false }, { "label": "Stoppage | frozen/out", "share": 0.016537235165372366, "cut": true }, { "label": "Takeaway", "share": 0.0019831350198313055, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Giveaway", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Faceoff won | away", "share": 0.09249075092490751, "cut": false }, { "label": "Stoppage | icing/offside", "share": 0.016437245164372463, "cut": true }, { "label": "Takeaway", "share": 0.002183115021831111, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "Shot saved | away shooter", "share": 0.08879112088791122, "cut": false }, { "label": "Hit | home", "share": 0.07709229077092292, "cut": false }, { "label": "Takeaway", "share": 0.0007832550078325054, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Takeaway", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Shot saved | home shooter", "share": 0.08889111088891112, "cut": false }, { "label": "Hit | away", "share": 0.02153673521536737, "cut": true }, { "label": "Takeaway", "share": 0.0006832650068325956, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Missed shot", "share": 0.08789121087891212, "cut": false }, { "label": "Giveaway", "share": 0.02151729271517293, "cut": true }, { "label": "Takeaway", "share": 0.0017026075170260345, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Blocked shot | away", "share": 0.027416702774167034, "cut": true }, { "label": "Takeaway", "share": 0.0003610750036107357, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Blocked shot 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"pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ 0.005550213965677009, 0.021519655329298892 ] }, "livecrash": { "bust_event": "Play segment ends (whistle)", "unit": "live event", "hazard": 0.227, "growth_per_event": 1.2936610608020698, "instant_bust": 0.02, "cdf": [ { "x": 1.2, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 1.2937, "fair_p": 0.8166666666666667, "achieved_p": 0.75754, "delta_pp": -5.9126666666666665 }, { "x": 1.5, "steps": 2, "mult_at_step": 1.6736, "fair_p": 0.6533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.5855784199999999, "delta_pp": -6.775491333333338 }, { "x": 2, "steps": 3, "mult_at_step": 2.165, "fair_p": 0.49, "achieved_p": 0.45265211866000005, "delta_pp": -3.734788133999994 }, { "x": 2.5, "steps": 4, "mult_at_step": 2.8008, "fair_p": 0.392, "achieved_p": 0.34990008772418, "delta_pp": -4.209991227582 }, { "x": 3, "steps": 5, "mult_at_step": 3.6233, "fair_p": 0.32666666666666666, "achieved_p": 0.27047276781079116, "delta_pp": -5.61938988558755 }, { "x": 4, "steps": 6, "mult_at_step": 4.6873, "fair_p": 0.245, "achieved_p": 0.2090754495177416, "delta_pp": -3.59245504822584 }, { "x": 5, "steps": 7, "mult_at_step": 6.0638, "fair_p": 0.196, "achieved_p": 0.16161532247721425, "delta_pp": -3.438467752278576 }, { "x": 7, "steps": 8, "mult_at_step": 7.8445, "fair_p": 0.13999999999999999, "achieved_p": 0.1249286442748866, "delta_pp": -1.507135572511338 }, { "x": 10, "steps": 9, "mult_at_step": 10.1481, "fair_p": 0.098, "achieved_p": 0.09656984202448736, "delta_pp": -0.14301579755126442 }, { "x": 15, "steps": 11, "mult_at_step": 16.9834, "fair_p": 0.06533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.05770328113504991, "delta_pp": -0.7630052198283416 }, { "x": 25, "steps": 13, "mult_at_step": 28.4228, "fair_p": 0.0392, "achieved_p": 0.03447938387334524, "delta_pp": -0.47206161266547597 } ], "basis": "NHL API 120-game sample: mean 4.40 live events per faceoff-to-whistle segment", "stationarity": "Measured directly from event transitions; near-geometric segment lengths", "edge_drift10": { "+10%": 0.10382580731577262, "-10%": -0.06889653225129799 } }, "liveslots": { "model": "payout = m x sum(base^count) per distinct symbol; every spin pays, RTP is exact", "m": 0.05131939796669981, "rtp": 0.95, "p_net_win": 0.204988690108102, "symbols": [ { "sym": "FACE", "event": "faceoff", "p": 0.1850814918508149, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.10263879593339963, "pay2": 0.20527759186679925, "pay3": 0.4105551837335985 }, { "sym": "SOG", "event": "shot saved", "p": 0.17768223177682232, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.10263879593339963, "pay2": 0.20527759186679925, "pay3": 0.4105551837335985 }, { "sym": "HIT", "event": "hit", "p": 0.15418458154184583, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.15395819390009943, "pay2": 0.4618745817002983, "pay3": 1.385623745100895 }, { "sym": "STOP", "event": "stoppage", "p": 0.14408559144085592, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.15395819390009943, "pay2": 0.4618745817002983, "pay3": 1.385623745100895 }, { "sym": "BLOCK", "event": "blocked", "p": 0.11038896110388961, "base": 4, "pay1": 0.20527759186679925, "pay2": 0.821110367467197, "pay3": 3.284441469868788 }, { "sym": "MISS", "event": "missed shot", "p": 0.08789121087891212, "base": 5, "pay1": 0.25659698983349905, "pay2": 1.2829849491674954, "pay3": 6.414924745837476 }, { "sym": "GIVE", "event": "giveaway", "p": 0.049295070492950704, "base": 8, "pay1": 0.4105551837335985, "pay2": 3.284441469868788, "pay3": 26.275531758950304 }, { "sym": "TAKE", "event": "takeaway", "p": 0.046495350464953504, "base": 12, "pay1": 0.6158327756003977, "pay2": 7.389993307204773, "pay3": 88.67991968645728 }, { "sym": "PEN", "event": "penalty", "p": 0.024397560243975606, "base": 20, "pay1": 1.0263879593339962, "pay2": 20.527759186679926, "pay3": 410.5551837335985 }, { "sym": "GOAL", "event": "goal", "p": 0.020497950204979503, "base": 32, "pay1": 1.642220734934394, "pay2": 52.55106351790061, "pay3": 1681.6340325728195 } ] }, "livehit": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Faceoff won | home", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Faceoff won | home", "share": 0.015667664002830487, "cut": true }, { "label": "Faceoff won | away", "share": 0.015567674001830583, "cut": true }, { "label": "Shot saved | home shooter", "share": 0.01196803396583419, "cut": true }, { "label": "Shot saved | away shooter", "share": 0.011868043964834287, "cut": true }, { "label": "Missed shot", "share": 0.01096813395583519, "cut": true }, { "label": "Hit | home", "share": 0.00016921384784598416, "cut": true }, { "label": "Hit | away", "share": 0.00016921384784598416, "cut": true }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.010545099336220222, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Faceoff won | away", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Shot saved | home shooter", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Shot saved | away shooter", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Missed shot", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Hit | home", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Hit | away", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Stoppage | frozen/out", "share": 0.0720927907209279, "cut": false }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.004830286202149021, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Stoppage | icing/offside", "share": 0.071992800719928, "cut": false }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.004930276203148924, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Blocked shot | home", "share": 0.055194480551944806, "cut": false }, { "label": "Takeaway", "share": 0.01886734403482728, "cut": true }, { "label": "Penalty", "share": 0.002668963872843483, "cut": true }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.00019228846346133646, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Blocked shot | away", "share": 0.055194480551944806, "cut": false }, { "label": "Penalty", "share": 0.02172859637113212, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Giveaway", "share": 0.049295070492950704, "cut": false }, { "label": "Takeaway", "share": 0.027628006430126223, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 } ], "bj_edge_drift10_pct": 0.30646260630946 }, "livedeal": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Faceoff won | home", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Faceoff won | home", "share": 0.015667664002830487, "cut": true }, { "label": "Faceoff won | away", "share": 0.015567674001830583, "cut": true }, { "label": "Shot saved | home shooter", "share": 0.01196803396583419, "cut": true }, { "label": "Shot saved | away shooter", "share": 0.011868043964834287, "cut": true }, { "label": "Missed shot", "share": 0.01096813395583519, "cut": true }, { "label": "Hit | home", "share": 0.00016921384784598416, "cut": true }, { "label": "Hit | away", "share": 0.00016921384784598416, "cut": true }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.010545099336220222, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Faceoff won | away", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Shot saved | home shooter", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Shot saved | away shooter", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Missed shot", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Hit | home", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Hit | away", "share": 0.07692307692307693, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Stoppage | frozen/out", "share": 0.0720927907209279, "cut": false }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.004830286202149021, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Stoppage | icing/offside", "share": 0.071992800719928, "cut": false }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.004930276203148924, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Blocked shot | home", "share": 0.055194480551944806, "cut": false }, { "label": "Takeaway", "share": 0.01886734403482728, "cut": true }, { "label": "Penalty", "share": 0.002668963872843483, "cut": true }, { "label": "Goal", "share": 0.00019228846346133646, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Blocked shot | away", "share": 0.055194480551944806, "cut": false }, { "label": "Penalty", "share": 0.02172859637113212, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Giveaway", "share": 0.049295070492950704, "cut": false }, { "label": "Takeaway", "share": 0.027628006430126223, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307693 } ], "suit_mark": "event team x attacking zone", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.30646260630946 }, "sources": [ { "name": "NHL API gamecenter play-by-play (RTSS-derived)", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2023020500/play-by-play", "what": "PRIMARY: 120-game systematic sample of 2023-24 for event frequencies + 36-game sample for transition hazards" }, { "name": "Hockey-Reference NHL League Averages", "url": "https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html", "what": "2023-24: 3.08 G/tm/gm, 3.02 PP chances, 20.98 PP%, 30.1 SA/tm, .903 SV%; 2024-25: 3.01, 2.71, 21.64, 28.1, .900" }, { "name": "Hockey-Reference 2023-24 Hat Tricks", "url": "https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2024_hat-tricks.html", "what": "115 hat tricks 2023-24" }, { "name": "Daily Faceoff goalie goals", "url": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/ranking-all-18-goalie-goals-in-nhl-history", "what": "goalie-goal rarity" } ] }, "golf": { "title": "GOLF", "unit": "hole result (field-multiplexed)", "events_per_game": 2808, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "FORCED", "reason": "works only field-multiplexed; par mass (.626) forces heavy par-type/nine splits and arrivals come in waves" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "the bogey-free streak IS golf's native drama; hazard .162 from exact 372,834-hole counts" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "6 score symbols every golfer already knows; ACE line = true 1-in-2,302 jackpot" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "FORCED", "reason": "par-heavy mass quantizes into ranks only via par-type/nine cuts" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "FORCED", "reason": "wave arrivals stall the 5-card board between groups; playable but not native" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": null, "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Double bogey", "share": 0.015701757026611276, "cut": false }, { "label": "Triple+", "share": 0.0021002350162983236, "cut": false }, { "label": "Par | par-4, scramble", "share": 0.004101781211539817, "cut": true }, { "label": "Par | par-5", "share": 0.005464703166951059, "cut": true }, { "label": "Birdie | par-3", "share": 0.0004093013563775214, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Bogey | par-3", "share": 0.035904017659576105, "cut": false }, { "label": "Birdie | par-5", "share": 0.019651537895979433, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Birdie | par-3", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Par | par-4 (other)", "share": 0.04250607865242344, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bogey | par-4", "share": 0.011377264782595865, "cut": true }, { "label": "Birdie | par-5", "share": 0.0005013783264569835, "cut": true }, { "label": "Birdie | par-3", "share": 0.001170833794079253, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Par | par-4 (other)", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Bogey | par-4", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Par | par-4, GIR", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "Par | par-3", "share": 0.15851773813489728, "cut": false }, { "label": "Par | par-4, GIR", "share": 0.004101781211539817, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bogey | par-5", "share": 0.0032016804902691097, "cut": true }, { "label": "Birdie | par-3", "share": 0.0008454668299603974, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Par | par-5", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Par | par-4, scramble", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Birdie | par-4", "share": 0.10081128078231953, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bogey | par-5", "share": 0.010299830328791542, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Par | par-5", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Birdie | par-5", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "11", "dice": [ "5-6", "6-5" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Bogey | par-4", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "12", "dice": [ "6-6" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Eagle", "share": 0.005100570753867358, "cut": false }, { "label": "Albatross/Ace", "share": 8.81098594932773e-05, "cut": false }, { "label": "Par | par-5", "share": 0.022589097164417135, "cut": true } ] } ], "attribute_splits": [ "Par | par-4, GIR: par-type + front/back split of the .3840 par-4-par mass", "Par | par-4, scramble: split", "Par | par-4 (other): split", "Par | par-3: par-type split (measured: 59,128/372,834 total)", "Par | par-5: par-type split (measured)", "Birdie | par-4: par-type split (measured: 37,591)", "Birdie | par-5: par-type split (measured: 28,237)", "Birdie | par-3: par-type split (measured: 11,255)", "Bogey | par-4: par-type split (measured)", "Bogey | par-3: par-type split", "Bogey | par-5: par-type split", "Albatross/Ace: 5 albatross + 37 aces of 372,834" ], "pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ -0.002139509139442497, 0.02654595234619228 ] }, "livecrash": { "bust_event": "Bogey or worse (streak breaker)", "unit": "hole played", "hazard": 0.16182, "growth_per_event": 1.1930611563148728, "instant_bust": 0.02, "cdf": [ { "x": 1.2, "steps": 2, "mult_at_step": 1.4234, "fair_p": 0.8166666666666667, 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0.11783480883279895, "delta_pp": -2.2165191167201033 }, { "x": 10, "steps": 14, "mult_at_step": 11.838, "fair_p": 0.098, "achieved_p": 0.08278433971695656, "delta_pp": -1.5215660283043442 }, { "x": 15, "steps": 16, "mult_at_step": 16.8501, "fair_p": 0.06533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.05815978292201286, "delta_pp": -0.7173550411320464 }, { "x": 25, "steps": 19, "mult_at_step": 28.6148, "fair_p": 0.0392, "achieved_p": 0.03424795611666963, "delta_pp": -0.49520438833303704 } ], "basis": "ShotLink 2022-23: 60,331 of 372,834 holes; survival .838/hole; P(bogey-free round)=4.2%", "stationarity": "Per-par hazard varies (par-3 .173 / par-4 .180 / par-5 .088); follow one player = authentic, or field-average", "edge_drift10": { "+10%": 0.09351641555795953, "-10%": -0.05789994679559274 } }, "liveslots": { "model": "payout = m x sum(base^count) per distinct symbol; every spin pays, RTP is exact", "m": 0.13116387146560937, "rtp": 0.95, "p_net_win": 0.33965163645395635, "symbols": [ { "sym": "PAR", 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{ "label": "Bogey | par-4", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Par | par-5", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Birdie | par-5", "share": 0.07570847177799196, "cut": false }, { "label": "Triple+", "share": 0.001214605145084954, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Bogey | par-3", "share": 0.035904017659576105, "cut": false }, { "label": "Birdie | par-3", "share": 0.03020337975819494, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bogey | par-5", "share": 0.010815679505305863, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 } ], "bj_edge_drift10_pct": 0.46724446483548804 }, "livedeal": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Par | par-3", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Par | par-3", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Par | par-3", "share": 0.004671584288743467, "cut": true }, { "label": "Par | par-4, GIR", "share": 0.03828981539957398, "cut": true }, { "label": "Birdie | par-4", "share": 0.023888203859242625, "cut": true }, { "label": "Par | par-5", "share": 0.006686278963846826, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bogey | par-5", "share": 0.002685831313754789, "cut": true }, { "label": "Triple+", "share": 0.0007013630979152176, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Par | par-4 (other)", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Par | par-4 (other)", "share": 0.0766941128404576, "cut": true }, { "label": "Triple+", "share": 0.00018426677329815198, "cut": true }, { "label": "Albatross/Ace", "share": 4.4697309321151296e-05, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Par | par-4, GIR", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Par | par-4, scramble", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Par | par-4, scramble", "share": 0.03828981539957398, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bogey | par-4", "share": 0.017787521192852263, "cut": true }, { "label": "Double bogey", "share": 0.015701757026611276, "cut": false }, { "label": "Eagle", "share": 0.005100570753867358, "cut": false }, { "label": "Albatross/Ace", "share": 4.3412550172125994e-05, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.076923076923077 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Birdie | par-4", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Bogey | par-4", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Par | par-5", "share": 0.07692307692307691, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Birdie | par-5", "share": 0.07570847177799196, "cut": false }, { "label": "Triple+", "share": 0.001214605145084954, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Bogey | par-3", "share": 0.035904017659576105, "cut": false }, { "label": "Birdie | par-3", "share": 0.03020337975819494, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bogey | par-5", "share": 0.010815679505305863, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307691 } ], "suit_mark": "hole par-type x nine (front/back)", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.46724446483548804 }, "sources": [ { "name": "2022-23 PGA TOUR Season - By the Numbers (ShotLink official)", "url": "https://pgatourmedia.pgatourhq.com/static-assets/page/files/tours/2023/pgatour/grantthorntoninvitational/shotlinkAnalysis/2022-23_PGA%20TOUR_Season_by_the_Numbers.pdf", "what": "PRIMARY: exact season scoring matrix (372,834 holes: 5 albatross / 1,898 eagle / 77,083 birdie / 233,517 par / 53,700 bogey / 5,867 double / 764 triple+), per-par-type counts, all tour averages" }, { "name": "PGA TOUR official stats portal", "url": "https://www.pgatour.com/stats", "what": "stat definitions and current-season leaderboards" }, { "name": "StatMuse PGA - Bogey Avoidance 2024", "url": "https://www.statmuse.com/pga/ask/best-bogey-avoidance-2024", "what": "2024: tour avg bogey-or-worse 15.44%/hole; Scheffler best 8.26%" }, { "name": "golf.com putting make percentages", "url": "https://golf.com/instruction/putting/pga-tour-putting-make-percentages-distance/", "what": "single-distance make rates 2-10ft" }, { "name": "NBC Sports - sub-60 rounds", "url": "https://www.nbcsports.com/golf/news/rounds-of-59-or-lower-in-pga-tour-history", "what": "complete sub-60 list: 14x59 + Furyk 58" } ] }, "ufc": { "title": "UFC / MMA", "unit": "significant strike attempt", "events_per_game": 165, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "FORCED", "reason": "strike stream is binary land/miss at heart; rows need corner/position cuts and read samey" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "the finish IS a crash: every surviving minute grows the pot, one punch ends it" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "KD/TD/SUB as rare symbols over the strike stream is legible fight grammar" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "FORCED", "reason": "9 sub-events for 13 ranks; heavy split load" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "DOESN'T-WORK", "reason": "a 5-card board can die mid-hand to a 1-punch finish; hand-completion risk breaks the game contract" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": "Takedowns/knockdowns/sub attempts ride as overlay events (slots symbols, crash spikes), not dice rolls", "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Head strike misses | clinch/ground", "share": 0.019277777777777838, "cut": true }, { "label": "Body strike lands", "share": 0.008499999999999931, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Head strike lands | blue", "share": 0.05088888888888893, "cut": true }, { "label": "Leg strike misses", "share": 0.003777777777777838, "cut": true }, { "label": "Leg strike lands", "share": 0.0008888888888887725, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Body strike misses", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Head strike misses | red, distance", "share": 0.04338888888888892, "cut": true }, { "label": "Leg strike misses", "share": 0.012166666666666617, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Head strike lands | blue", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Body strike misses", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Head strike misses | red, distance", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "Head strike lands | red", "share": 0.162, "cut": false }, { "label": "Body strike lands", "share": 0.0034444444444445346, "cut": true }, { "label": "Leg strike lands", "share": 0.00122222222222209, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Body strike misses", "share": 0.026944444444444465, "cut": true }, { "label": "Leg strike lands", "share": 0.0008333333333336024, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Head strike misses | blue, distance", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Head strike misses | blue, distance", "share": 0.04338888888888892, "cut": true }, { "label": "Head strike misses | clinch/ground", "share": 0.06772222222222216, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Leg strike misses", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Body strike lands", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "11", "dice": [ "5-6", "6-5" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Leg strike lands", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "12", "dice": [ "6-6" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Leg strike misses", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] } ], "attribute_splits": [ "Head strike lands | red: target split (72/15/13 of landed, UFCStats) x corner", "Head strike lands | blue: corner split", "Body strike lands: target split", "Leg strike lands: target split", "Head strike misses | red, distance: corner + position split (distance ~78%)", "Head strike misses | blue, distance: corner + position split", "Head strike misses | clinch/ground: position split", "Body strike misses: target split", "Leg strike misses: target split" ], "pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ -0.0025468430983270895, 0.02678040232209189 ] }, "livecrash": { "bust_event": "Fight ends (KO/TKO/sub)", "unit": "fight minute", "hazard": 0.056, "growth_per_event": 1.0593220338983051, "instant_bust": 0.02, "cdf": [ { "x": 1.2, "steps": 4, "mult_at_step": 1.2593, "fair_p": 0.8166666666666667, "achieved_p": 0.7782409030860797, "delta_pp": -3.8425763580586914 }, { "x": 1.5, "steps": 8, "mult_at_step": 1.5857, "fair_p": 0.6533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.6180192890165684, "delta_pp": -3.531404431676488 }, { "x": 2, "steps": 13, "mult_at_step": 2.1153, "fair_p": 0.49, "achieved_p": 0.46329968141915756, "delta_pp": -2.670031858084243 }, { "x": 2.5, "steps": 16, "mult_at_step": 2.5145, "fair_p": 0.392, "achieved_p": 0.38974269550667834, "delta_pp": -0.22573044933216768 }, { "x": 3, "steps": 20, "mult_at_step": 3.1664, "fair_p": 0.32666666666666666, "achieved_p": 0.3095037829819596, "delta_pp": -1.7162883684707086 }, { "x": 4, "steps": 25, "mult_at_step": 4.2238, "fair_p": 0.245, "achieved_p": 0.232020272832814, 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"+10%": 0.09294392111535787, "-10%": -0.0583256625139148 } }, "liveslots": { "model": "payout = m x sum(base^count) per distinct symbol; every spin pays, RTP is exact", "m": 0.13653076144861787, "rtp": 0.95, "p_net_win": 0.2723780799999996, "symbols": [ { "sym": "MISS", "event": "strike misses", "p": 0.5359999999999999, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.27306152289723573, "pay2": 0.5461230457944715, "pay3": 1.092246091588943 }, { "sym": "HEAD", "event": "head strike lands", "p": 0.32399999999999995, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.27306152289723573, "pay2": 0.5461230457944715, "pay3": 1.092246091588943 }, { "sym": "BODY", "event": "body lands", "p": 0.06749999999999999, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.4095922843458536, "pay2": 1.228776853037561, "pay3": 3.6863305591126823 }, { "sym": "LEG", "event": "leg lands", "p": 0.05849999999999999, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.4095922843458536, "pay2": 1.228776853037561, "pay3": 3.6863305591126823 }, { "sym": "TD", "event": "takedown landed (1.26/fight)", "p": 0.007599999999999998, 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"label": "Returner wins rally | 1st serve, short", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Returner wins rally | 1st serve, short", "share": 0.03407692307692308, "cut": true }, { "label": "Return error | unforced", "share": 0.04070000000000001, "cut": false }, { "label": "Double fault", "share": 0.0021461538461538536, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Server wins rally | 1st serve, long", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Returner wins rally | 1st serve, long", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Ace", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "bj_edge_drift10_pct": 0.4439802971641713 }, "livedeal": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Return error | forced", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Return error | forced", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Return error | forced", "share": 0.008153846153846152, "cut": true }, { "label": "Server wins rally | 2nd serve", "share": 0.05647692307692307, "cut": true }, { "label": "Double fault", "share": 0.012292307692307715, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Server wins rally | 2nd serve", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Server wins rally | 1st serve, short", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Server wins rally | 1st serve, short", "share": 0.045976923076923075, "cut": true }, { "label": "Server wins rally | 1st serve, long", "share": 0.023576923076923082, "cut": true }, { "label": "Ace", "share": 0.00677692307692307, "cut": true }, { "label": "Double fault", "share": 0.000592307692307656, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307689 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Returner wins rally | 2nd serve", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Returner wins rally | 2nd serve", "share": 0.043576923076923076, "cut": true }, { "label": "Returner wins rally | 1st serve, long", "share": 0.01387692307692308, "cut": true }, { "label": "Double fault", "share": 0.019469230769230784, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Returner wins rally | 1st serve, short", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Returner wins rally | 1st serve, short", "share": 0.03407692307692308, "cut": true }, { "label": "Return error | unforced", "share": 0.04070000000000001, "cut": false }, { "label": "Double fault", "share": 0.0021461538461538536, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Server wins rally | 1st serve, long", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Returner wins rally | 1st serve, long", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Ace", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "suit_mark": "server end x deuce/ad court (real)", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.4439802971641713 }, "sources": [ { "name": "Jeff Sackmann Match Charting Project (GitHub)", "url": "https://github.com/JeffSackmann/tennis_MatchChartingProject", "what": "Raw shot-by-shot notation + parsed aggregates. Figures computed over 2023-2025: 1,967 ATP / 1,357 WTA matches, 320,608 / 182,987 points; parser reproduces Sackmann aggregates to 0.03pp" }, { "name": "ATP Stats Centre via msolonskyi/ManTennisData mirror", "url": "https://github.com/msolonskyi/ManTennisData", "what": "Official per-match ATP stats 2023-2025 filtered to tour-level main draw: 7,105 matches, 1.17M service points" }, { "name": "MCP Rally Stats Glossary (Heavy Topspin)", "url": "https://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2019/08/17/match-charting-project-rally-stats-glossary/", "what": "Rally bucket definitions and rallyCount convention" }, { "name": "Wikipedia Golden set", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_set", "what": "2 tour-level occurrences ever" } ] }, "cricket": { "title": "CRICKET", "unit": "delivery (T20)", "events_per_game": 245, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "ball-by-ball outcomes are already discrete casino symbols; phase splits are broadcast-native" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "1-in-19 wicket hazard unchanged for 18 IPL seasons; the textbook crash sport" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "7 symbols with SIX as jackpot; no-ball = free-hit bonus is a built-in feature" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "runs ladder maps to rank ladder almost 1:1" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "steady over rhythm deals streets like hands" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": null, "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Wicket", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Single | middle", "share": 0.03968888888888888, "cut": true }, { "label": "Six", "share": 0.015866666666666664, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Three runs", "share": 0.003999999999999999, "cut": false }, { "label": "Four", "share": 0.02377777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Wide", "share": 0.034999999999999996, "cut": false }, { "label": "Four", "share": 0.020555555555555546, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Single | middle", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Bye/leg-bye", "share": 0.011999999999999997, "cut": false }, { "label": "Wicket", "share": 0.006355555555555557, "cut": true }, { "label": "Two runs", "share": 0.009422222222222216, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Dot | powerplay", "share": 0.10049999999999998, "cut": false }, { "label": "Single | death", "share": 0.0007333333333333356, "cut": true }, { "label": "Six", "share": 0.006355555555555557, "cut": true }, { "label": "No-ball", "share": 0.0035222222222222035, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "Dot | middle", "share": 0.15079999999999996, "cut": false }, { "label": "Wicket", "share": 0.015866666666666664, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Single | death", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Single | powerplay", "share": 0.10049999999999998, "cut": false }, { "label": "Four", "share": 0.010111111111111121, "cut": true }, { "label": "Two runs", "share": 2.2222222222232493e-05, "cut": true }, { "label": "No-ball", "share": 0.0004777777777777956, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Dot | death", "share": 0.08369999999999998, "cut": false }, { "label": "Single | death", "share": 0.0274111111111111, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Single | death", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Two runs", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "11", "dice": [ "5-6", "6-5" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Four", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "12", "dice": [ "6-6" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Six", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] } ], "attribute_splits": [ "Dot | powerplay: phase split (overs 1-6 ~30% of balls)", "Dot | middle: phase split (7-15 ~45%)", "Dot | death: phase split (16-20 ~25%)", "Single | powerplay: phase split", "Single | middle: phase split", "Single | death: phase split" ], "pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ -0.0012448459281282354, 0.02602086153983063 ] }, "livecrash": { "bust_event": "Wicket falls", "unit": "delivery", "hazard": 0.052, "growth_per_event": 1.0548523206751055, "instant_bust": 0.02, "cdf": [ { "x": 1.2, "steps": 4, "mult_at_step": 1.2381, "fair_p": 0.8166666666666667, "achieved_p": 0.7915155020236798, "delta_pp": -2.5151164642986834 }, { "x": 1.5, "steps": 8, "mult_at_step": 1.533, "fair_p": 0.6533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.6392824387181612, "delta_pp": -1.4050894615172171 }, { "x": 2, "steps": 13, "mult_at_step": 2.0021, "fair_p": 0.49, "achieved_p": 0.48947944742372185, "delta_pp": -0.05205525762781438 }, { "x": 2.5, "steps": 18, "mult_at_step": 2.6149, "fair_p": 0.392, "achieved_p": 0.37477977641719573, "delta_pp": -1.7220223582804284 }, { "x": 3, "steps": 21, "mult_at_step": 3.0692, "fair_p": 0.32666666666666666, "achieved_p": 0.319301647807607, "delta_pp": -0.7365018859059658 }, { "x": 4, "steps": 26, "mult_at_step": 4.0085, "fair_p": 0.245, "achieved_p": 0.24447972392880823, "delta_pp": -0.05202760711917609 }, { "x": 5, "steps": 31, "mult_at_step": 5.2353, "fair_p": 0.196, "achieved_p": 0.1871908141492602, "delta_pp": -0.8809185850739809 }, { "x": 7, "steps": 37, "mult_at_step": 7.2126, "fair_p": 0.13999999999999999, "achieved_p": 0.13587343572360655, "delta_pp": -0.4126564276393435 }, { "x": 10, "steps": 44, "mult_at_step": 10.4817, "fair_p": 0.098, "achieved_p": 0.09349597578834337, "delta_pp": -0.4504024211656632 }, { "x": 15, "steps": 51, "mult_at_step": 15.2326, "fair_p": 0.06533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.06433558879306198, "delta_pp": -0.09977445402713503 }, { "x": 25, "steps": 61, "mult_at_step": 25.9831, "fair_p": 0.0392, "achieved_p": 0.03771678388644501, "delta_pp": -0.14832161135549873 } ], "basis": "Wisden: ~19 balls per dismissal, stable IPL 2008 through 2025", "stationarity": "The most stable hazard in the survey; phase conditioning (PP .045 / mid .046 / death .080) available", "edge_drift10": { "+10%": 0.0876275761937173, "-10%": -0.0522286633414184 } }, "liveslots": { "model": "payout = m x sum(base^count) per distinct symbol; every spin pays, RTP is exact", "m": 0.1043975626070724, "rtp": 0.95, "p_net_win": 0.2549506199999999, "symbols": [ { "sym": "ONE", "event": "single", "p": 0.335, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.2087951252141448, "pay2": 0.4175902504282896, "pay3": 0.8351805008565792 }, { "sym": "DOT", "event": "dot", "p": 0.335, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.2087951252141448, "pay2": 0.4175902504282896, "pay3": 0.8351805008565792 }, { "sym": "FOUR", "event": "four", "p": 0.11, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.31319268782121723, "pay2": 0.9395780634636517, "pay3": 2.818734190390955 }, { "sym": "RUNS", "event": "2s and 3s", "p": 0.069, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.31319268782121723, "pay2": 0.9395780634636517, "pay3": 2.818734190390955 }, { "sym": "EXTRA", "event": "wide/no-ball/byes", "p": 0.051, "base": 4, "pay1": 0.4175902504282896, "pay2": 1.6703610017131585, "pay3": 6.681444006852634 }, { "sym": "SIX", "event": "six", "p": 0.05, "base": 5, "pay1": 0.521987813035362, "pay2": 2.60993906517681, "pay3": 13.04969532588405 }, { "sym": "W", "event": "wicket", "p": 0.05, "base": 8, "pay1": 0.8351805008565792, "pay2": 6.681444006852634, "pay3": 53.45155205482107 } ] }, "livehit": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Dot | middle", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Dot | middle", "share": 0.07387692307692305, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bye/leg-bye", "share": 0.0014384615384614198, "cut": true }, { "label": "No-ball", "share": 0.0006538461538461264, "cut": true }, { "label": "Three runs", "share": 0.0009538461538461072, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.0769230769230767 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Single | middle", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Single | middle", "share": 0.07387692307692305, "cut": true }, { "label": "Three runs", "share": 0.003046153846153893, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Four", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Four", "share": 0.03307692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "Dot | powerplay", "share": 0.023576923076923065, "cut": true }, { "label": "Dot | death", "share": 0.006776923076923055, "cut": true }, { "label": "Single | death", "share": 0.006776923076923055, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bye/leg-bye", "share": 0.006715384615384706, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Dot | powerplay", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Single | powerplay", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Single | powerplay", "share": 0.023576923076923065, "cut": true }, { "label": "Wicket", "share": 0.05, "cut": false }, { "label": "No-ball", "share": 0.0033461538461538737, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Dot | death", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Single | death", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Two runs", "share": 0.065, "cut": false }, { "label": "Wide", "share": 0.008076923076923065, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bye/leg-bye", "share": 0.003846153846153874, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Six", "share": 0.05, "cut": false }, { "label": "Wide", "share": 0.02692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "bj_edge_drift10_pct": 0.49310969418836575 }, "livedeal": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Dot | middle", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Dot | middle", "share": 0.07387692307692305, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bye/leg-bye", "share": 0.0014384615384614198, "cut": true }, { "label": "No-ball", "share": 0.0006538461538461264, "cut": true }, { "label": "Three runs", "share": 0.0009538461538461072, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.0769230769230767 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Single | middle", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Single | middle", "share": 0.07387692307692305, "cut": true }, { "label": "Three runs", "share": 0.003046153846153893, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Four", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Four", "share": 0.03307692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "Dot | powerplay", "share": 0.023576923076923065, "cut": true }, { "label": "Dot | death", "share": 0.006776923076923055, "cut": true }, { "label": "Single | death", "share": 0.006776923076923055, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bye/leg-bye", "share": 0.006715384615384706, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Dot | powerplay", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Single | powerplay", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Single | powerplay", "share": 0.023576923076923065, "cut": true }, { "label": "Wicket", "share": 0.05, "cut": false }, { "label": "No-ball", "share": 0.0033461538461538737, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Dot | death", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Single | death", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Two runs", "share": 0.065, "cut": false }, { "label": "Wide", "share": 0.008076923076923065, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bye/leg-bye", "share": 0.003846153846153874, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Six", "share": 0.05, "cut": false }, { "label": "Wide", "share": 0.02692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "suit_mark": "batting end x bowler type (pace/spin)", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.49310969418836575 }, "sources": [ { "name": "Wisden - Crash Bang Wallop: How IPL Batting Has Changed Since 2008", "url": "https://www.wisden.com/series/ipl-2026/cricket-news/crash-bang-wallop-how-ipl-batting-has-changed-since-2008", "what": "Balls per dismissal ~19 in IPL 2008 and 2025; phase run rates" }, { "name": "ESPNcricinfo - Kartikeya Date dot-ball analysis", "url": "https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/kartikeya-date-is-a-single-in-t20-the-same-as-a-dot-ball-in-odis-1149901", "what": "T20 ~46 dots per 120-ball innings; ODI higher" }, { "name": "Sweepcricket - year-wise IPL boundaries", "url": "https://www.sweepcricket.com/ipl/sixes-and-fours-in-each-ipl/", "what": "IPL 2024: 2,174 fours + 1,260 sixes in 74 matches" }, { "name": "Crictracker - IPL hat-tricks", "url": "https://www.crictracker.com/list-of-bowlers-who-have-picked-a-hat-trick-in-the-ipl/", "what": "23 hat-tricks as of April 2025" }, { "name": "myKhel - IPL super overs", "url": "https://www.mykhel.com/cricket/ipl-super-over-list-all-16-ties-from-2009-to-2026-records-winners-428527.html", "what": "16 super overs 2009-2026" }, { "name": "ESPNcricinfo - Test dismissals across the ages", "url": "https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/analysing-test-dismissals-across-the-ages-622519", "what": "Test baseline: caught 56.9%, bowled 21.4%, LBW 14.3% (1877-2012)" }, { "name": "Cricsheet", "url": "https://cricsheet.org/", "what": "Canonical open ball-by-ball archive, ~1,243 IPL matches" }, { "name": "Opta Analyst - Next Ball Probability in Cricket", "url": "https://theanalyst.com/2022/10/opta-next-ball-predictor", "what": "Industry next-ball model {dot, run, boundary, wicket}" } ] }, "crypto": { "title": "CRYPTO (BTC)", "unit": "1-second bar", "events_per_game": 3600, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "price is continuous: quantile cuts ARE the semantics; exact fairness by construction, renormalized per vol regime" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "crash was literally invented for this stream (bustabit); run-survival hazard tunable" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "FORCED", "reason": "magnitude-bin symbols have no story between MOON and REKT; playable, not legible" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "quantile-exact ranks; 24/7 uptime makes it the filler deck" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "same exactness; board fills in 5 seconds or slower gears" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": null, "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | >= 0.05%", "share": 0.003, "cut": false }, { "label": "Down | < 0.01%", "share": 0.007777777777777856, "cut": true }, { "label": "Flat | after up bar", "share": 0.0033333333333333964, "cut": true }, { "label": "Flat | after down bar", "share": 0.0033333333333333964, "cut": true }, { "label": "Down | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.010333333333333122, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Flat | after up bar", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Up | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Flat | after down bar", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Up | < 0.01%", "share": 0.06333333333333338, "cut": true }, { "label": "Up | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.0477777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | < 0.01%", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "Up | < 0.01%", "share": 0.16666666666666663, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | < 0.01%", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Flat | after up bar", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Flat | after down bar", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "11", "dice": [ "5-6", "6-5" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Flat | after down bar", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "12", "dice": [ "6-6" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Up | >= 0.05%", "share": 0.003, "cut": false }, { "label": "Up | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.021444444444444537, "cut": true }, { "label": "Down | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.0033333333333335803, "cut": true } ] } ], "attribute_splits": [ "Up | >= 0.05%: magnitude buckets from RV-derived thresholds (quantile-exact by construction)", "Up | 0.01-0.05%: magnitude bucket", "Up | < 0.01%: magnitude bucket", "Flat | after up bar: preceding-bar split (real mark)", "Flat | after down bar: preceding-bar split", "Down | < 0.01%: magnitude bucket", "Down | 0.01-0.05%: magnitude bucket", "Down | >= 0.05%: magnitude bucket" ], "pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ -0.0010188945125919613, 0.025432693974535514 ] }, "livecrash": { "bust_event": "Down bar ends the run", "unit": "1s bar", "hazard": 0.35, "growth_per_event": 1.5384615384615383, "instant_bust": 0.02, "cdf": [ { "x": 1.2, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 1.5385, "fair_p": 0.8166666666666667, "achieved_p": 0.637, "delta_pp": -17.966666666666665 }, { "x": 1.5, "steps": 1, "mult_at_step": 1.5385, "fair_p": 0.6533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.637, "delta_pp": -1.633333333333331 }, { "x": 2, "steps": 2, "mult_at_step": 2.3669, "fair_p": 0.49, "achieved_p": 0.41405000000000003, "delta_pp": -7.594999999999996 }, { "x": 2.5, "steps": 3, "mult_at_step": 3.6413, "fair_p": 0.392, "achieved_p": 0.2691325, "delta_pp": -12.286750000000001 }, { "x": 3, "steps": 3, "mult_at_step": 3.6413, "fair_p": 0.32666666666666666, "achieved_p": 0.2691325, "delta_pp": -5.753416666666666 }, { "x": 4, "steps": 4, "mult_at_step": 5.602, "fair_p": 0.245, "achieved_p": 0.17493612500000003, "delta_pp": -7.006387499999997 }, { "x": 5, "steps": 4, "mult_at_step": 5.602, "fair_p": 0.196, "achieved_p": 0.17493612500000003, "delta_pp": -2.106387499999998 }, { "x": 7, "steps": 5, "mult_at_step": 8.6185, "fair_p": 0.13999999999999999, "achieved_p": 0.11370848125000001, "delta_pp": -2.629151874999998 }, { "x": 10, "steps": 6, "mult_at_step": 13.2593, "fair_p": 0.098, "achieved_p": 0.07391051281250001, "delta_pp": -2.4089487187499996 }, { "x": 15, "steps": 7, "mult_at_step": 20.3989, "fair_p": 0.06533333333333333, "achieved_p": 0.04804183332812501, "delta_pp": -1.7291500005208313 }, { "x": 25, "steps": 8, "mult_at_step": 31.3829, "fair_p": 0.0392, "achieved_p": 0.031227191663281258, "delta_pp": -0.7972808336718741 } ], "basis": "HF microstructure: P(down) ~.33-.37; up-or-flat survives", "stationarity": "Vol clustering breaks iid: renormalize thresholds by (30d RV / 45%) so the hazard stays pinned; bid-ask bounce makes long runs die slightly faster (house-safe direction)", "edge_drift10": { "+10%": 0.12269704142011861, "-10%": -0.08837988165680466 } }, "liveslots": { "model": "payout = m x sum(base^count) per distinct symbol; every spin pays, RTP is exact", "m": 0.10946563212773364, "rtp": 0.95, "p_net_win": 0.2138309199999997, "symbols": [ { "sym": "FLAT", "event": "flat", "p": 0.34, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.21893126425546727, "pay2": 0.43786252851093455, "pay3": 0.8757250570218691 }, { "sym": "UP", "event": "up small", "p": 0.23, "base": 2, "pay1": 0.21893126425546727, "pay2": 0.43786252851093455, "pay3": 0.8757250570218691 }, { "sym": "DOWN", "event": "down small", "p": 0.23, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.3283968963832009, "pay2": 0.9851906891496027, "pay3": 2.9555720674488084 }, { "sym": "PUMP", "event": "up 0.01-0.05%", "p": 0.097, "base": 3, "pay1": 0.3283968963832009, "pay2": 0.9851906891496027, "pay3": 2.9555720674488084 }, { "sym": "DUMP", "event": "down 0.01-0.05%", "p": 0.097, "base": 4, "pay1": 0.43786252851093455, "pay2": 1.7514501140437382, "pay3": 7.005800456174953 }, { "sym": "MOON", "event": "up >=0.05%", "p": 0.003, "base": 5, "pay1": 0.5473281606386682, "pay2": 2.7366408031933407, "pay3": 13.683204015966705 }, { "sym": "REKT", "event": "down >=0.05%", "p": 0.003, "base": 8, "pay1": 0.8757250570218691, "pay2": 7.005800456174953, "pay3": 56.04640364939962 } ] }, "livehit": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Down | < 0.01%", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Down | < 0.01%", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Down | < 0.01%", "share": 0.07615384615384611, "cut": true }, { "label": "Up | >= 0.05%", "share": 0.0007692307692308276, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Up | < 0.01%", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Up | < 0.01%", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Up | < 0.01%", "share": 0.07615384615384611, "cut": true }, { "label": "Up | >= 0.05%", "share": 0.0007692307692306142, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307673 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Flat | after up bar", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Flat | after up bar", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Flat | after up bar", "share": 0.01615384615384613, "cut": true }, { "label": "Flat | after down bar", "share": 0.01615384615384613, "cut": true }, { "label": "Down | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.02007692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "Up | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.02007692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "Down | >= 0.05%", "share": 0.003, "cut": false }, { "label": "Up | >= 0.05%", "share": 0.0014615384615385583, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Flat | after down bar", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Flat | after down bar", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Down | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Up | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "bj_edge_drift10_pct": 0.585261003070628 }, "livedeal": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Down | < 0.01%", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Down | < 0.01%", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Down | < 0.01%", "share": 0.07615384615384611, "cut": true }, { "label": "Up | >= 0.05%", "share": 0.0007692307692308276, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Up | < 0.01%", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Up | < 0.01%", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Up | < 0.01%", "share": 0.07615384615384611, "cut": true }, { "label": "Up | >= 0.05%", "share": 0.0007692307692306142, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307673 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Flat | after up bar", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Flat | after up bar", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Flat | after up bar", "share": 0.01615384615384613, "cut": true }, { "label": "Flat | after down bar", "share": 0.01615384615384613, "cut": true }, { "label": "Down | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.02007692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "Up | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.02007692307692306, "cut": true }, { "label": "Down | >= 0.05%", "share": 0.003, "cut": false }, { "label": "Up | >= 0.05%", "share": 0.0014615384615385583, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Flat | after down bar", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Flat | after down bar", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Down | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Up | 0.01-0.05%", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 } ], "suit_mark": "direction x preceding-bar direction", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.585261003070628 }, "sources": [ { "name": "Binance Spot API docs", "url": "https://developers.binance.com/docs/binance-spot-api-docs/rest-api/market-data-endpoints", "what": "1s klines, public no-auth" }, { "name": "The Block BTC 30d annualized volatility", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/prices/annualized-btc-volatility-30d", "what": "live RV regime series" }, { "name": "Block Scholes Volatility Review Feb 2025", "url": "https://www.blockscholes.com/research/volatility-review-february-2025", "what": "29% RV = 18-month floor" }, { "name": "Webopedia crypto flash crashes", "url": "https://www.webopedia.com/crypto/learn/biggest-crypto-flash-crashes/", "what": "episode list" }, { "name": "MDPI JRFM Bitcoin at High Frequency", "url": "https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/1/36", "what": "tick-level BTC behavior" }, { "name": "arXiv 2110.09429 jumps in HF digital assets", "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2110.09429", "what": "fat tails, near-zero mass, jump frequency" }, { "name": "Wikipedia Trading curb", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_curb", "what": "L1 breaker 4x ever (Mar 2020)" }, { "name": "Macroption VIX stats", "url": "https://www.macroption.com/vix-chart/", "what": "VIX mean 19.39 since 1993" }, { "name": "FACEIT 2025 ESEA side balance", "url": "https://x.com/FACEITcs/status/2004975607654830408", "what": "CT/T win rates by map" }, { "name": "HLTV Rating 3.0", "url": "https://www.hltv.org/news/42485/introducing-rating-30", "what": "opening kill +20%, 1v1 +50% weights" }, { "name": "HLTV bomb-site holds", "url": "https://www.hltv.org/news/40195/which-bomb-sites-are-hardest-to-hold", "what": "plant-denial ~30%, post-plant conversion" } ] }, "indices": { "title": "INDICES (ES)", "unit": "1-minute bar", "events_per_game": 60, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "fair-coin bars + quantile magnitude cuts; session-bound (no weekends)" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "same construction as crypto at 1-min gear; circuit breakers = house-neutral voids" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "DOESN'T-WORK", "reason": "five near-indistinguishable magnitude bins; no symbol identity, no jackpot story" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "quantile-exact ranks during session hours" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "as livehit; halts void the hand by rule" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": "Halts/circuit breakers = table closed (real market state)", "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Up | 1 tick", "share": 0.05222222222222231, "cut": true }, { "label": "Unchanged", "share": 0.00333333333333323, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Up | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.011111111111111155, "cut": true }, { "label": "Down | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.011111111111111155, "cut": true }, { "label": "Unchanged", "share": 0.0055555555555554595, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Up | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Up | 1 tick", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | 1 tick", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "Up | 1 tick", "share": 0.16666666666666663, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | 1 tick", "share": 0.11111111111111108, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | 1 tick", "share": 0.10777777777777786, "cut": true }, { "label": "Unchanged", "share": 0.003333333333333542, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Unchanged", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Up | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "11", "dice": [ "5-6", "6-5" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Down | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "12", "dice": [ "6-6" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Up | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] } ], "attribute_splits": [ "Up | >= 2 ticks: tick-magnitude buckets (quantile-exact)", "Up | 1 tick: bucket", "Unchanged: bucket", "Down | 1 tick: bucket", "Down | >= 2 ticks: bucket" ], "pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ -0.004979725963686121, 0.02899974239806613 ] }, 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"events": [ { "label": "Down | 1 tick", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Down | 1 tick", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Up | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Up | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.07307692307692305, "cut": true }, { "label": "Unchanged", "share": 0.003846153846153888, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Down | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Down | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.07307692307692305, "cut": true }, { "label": "Unchanged", "share": 0.0038461538461537284, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307679 } ], "bj_edge_drift10_pct": 0.9086659772492184 }, "livedeal": { "ranks": [ { "rank": "2", "events": [ { "label": "Up | 1 tick", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "3", "events": [ { "label": "Up | 1 tick", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "4", "events": [ { "label": "Up | 1 tick", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "5", "events": [ { "label": "Up | 1 tick", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "6", "events": [ { "label": "Up | 1 tick", "share": 0.02230769230769228, "cut": true }, { "label": "Down | 1 tick", "share": 0.02230769230769228, "cut": true }, { "label": "Unchanged", "share": 0.032307692307692384, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "7", "events": [ { "label": "Down | 1 tick", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "8", "events": [ { "label": "Down | 1 tick", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "9", "events": [ { "label": "Down | 1 tick", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "T", "events": [ { "label": "Down | 1 tick", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "J", "events": [ { "label": "Up | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "Q", "events": [ { "label": "Up | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.07307692307692305, "cut": true }, { "label": "Unchanged", "share": 0.003846153846153888, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "K", "events": [ { "label": "Down | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.07692307692307694, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307694 }, { "rank": "A", "events": [ { "label": "Down | >= 2 ticks", "share": 0.07307692307692305, "cut": true }, { "label": "Unchanged", "share": 0.0038461538461537284, "cut": true } ], "p": 0.07692307692307679 } ], "suit_mark": "direction x preceding bar", "board_fill": "one real event per board card; rejection on dealt cards = exact without-replacement deal", "rank_target": 0.07692307692307693, "rank_edge_drift10_pct": 0.9086659772492184 }, "sources": [ { "name": "Binance Spot API docs", "url": "https://developers.binance.com/docs/binance-spot-api-docs/rest-api/market-data-endpoints", "what": "1s klines, public no-auth" }, { "name": "The Block BTC 30d annualized volatility", "url": "https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/prices/annualized-btc-volatility-30d", "what": "live RV regime series" }, { "name": "Block Scholes Volatility Review Feb 2025", "url": "https://www.blockscholes.com/research/volatility-review-february-2025", "what": "29% RV = 18-month floor" }, { "name": "Webopedia crypto flash crashes", "url": "https://www.webopedia.com/crypto/learn/biggest-crypto-flash-crashes/", "what": "episode list" }, { "name": "MDPI JRFM Bitcoin at High Frequency", "url": "https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/1/36", "what": "tick-level BTC behavior" }, { "name": "arXiv 2110.09429 jumps in HF digital assets", "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2110.09429", "what": "fat tails, near-zero mass, jump frequency" }, { "name": "Wikipedia Trading curb", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_curb", "what": "L1 breaker 4x ever (Mar 2020)" }, { "name": "Macroption VIX stats", "url": "https://www.macroption.com/vix-chart/", "what": "VIX mean 19.39 since 1993" }, { "name": "FACEIT 2025 ESEA side balance", "url": "https://x.com/FACEITcs/status/2004975607654830408", "what": "CT/T win rates by map" }, { "name": "HLTV Rating 3.0", "url": "https://www.hltv.org/news/42485/introducing-rating-30", "what": "opening kill +20%, 1v1 +50% weights" }, { "name": "HLTV bomb-site holds", "url": "https://www.hltv.org/news/40195/which-bomb-sites-are-hardest-to-hold", "what": "plant-denial ~30%, post-plant conversion" } ] }, "cs2": { "title": "ESPORTS (CS2)", "unit": "kill/objective tick", "events_per_game": 150, "verdicts": { "liveroll": { "verdict": "FORCED", "reason": "kills arrive in 2-8s bursts then 20s freezetime; roll rhythm fights the round structure" }, "livecrash": { "verdict": "FORCED", "reason": "round-end hazard is severely back-loaded; playable only with the kill-index hazard table and it still telegraphs" }, "liveslots": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "HS/ACE/KNIFE/CLUTCH are native fan vocabulary with true rarities" }, "livehit": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "kill attributes (HS, weapon, side) give real rank semantics" }, "livedeal": { "verdict": "NATURAL", "reason": "5-card board per round maps to the round's kill sequence" } }, "liveroll": { "noroll_rule": null, "rows": [ { "key": "2", "dice": [ "1-1" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Kill | HS, T, 2nd half", "share": 0.02293333333333336, "cut": true }, { "label": "Round win | T", "share": 0.004844444444444408, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "3", "dice": [ "1-2", "2-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Kill | HS, CT, 1st half", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_hard", "dice": [ "2-2" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Bomb plant", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "4_soft", "dice": [ "1-3", "3-1" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Kill | HS, CT, 1st half", "share": 0.03924444444444446, "cut": true }, { "label": "Kill | HS, CT, 2nd half", "share": 0.011466666666666687, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bomb plant", "share": 0.004844444444444394, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "5", "dice": [ "1-4", "4-1", "2-3", "3-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Kill | body, T, 1st half", "share": 0.1069, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bomb plant", "share": 0.004211111111111082, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_hard", "dice": [ "3-3" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Kill | HS, CT, 2nd half", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "6_soft", "dice": [ "1-5", "5-1", "2-4", "4-2" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Kill | body, T, 2nd half", "share": 0.1069, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bomb plant", "share": 0.004211111111111082, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "7", "dice": [ "1-6", "6-1", "2-5", "5-2", "3-4", "4-3" ], "target_p": 0.16666666666666666, "composition": [ { "label": "Kill | HS, T, 1st half", "share": 0.0948, "cut": false }, { "label": "Kill | HS, T, 2nd half", "share": 0.07186666666666663, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_hard", "dice": [ "4-4" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Defuse / explode", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "8_soft", "dice": [ "2-6", "6-2", "3-5", "5-3" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Kill | body, CT, 1st half", "share": 0.1069, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bomb plant", "share": 0.004211111111111082, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "9", "dice": [ "3-6", "6-3", "4-5", "5-4" ], "target_p": 0.1111111111111111, "composition": [ { "label": "Kill | body, CT, 2nd half", "share": 0.1069, "cut": false }, { "label": "Bomb plant", "share": 0.004211111111111082, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_hard", "dice": [ "5-5" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Defuse / explode", "share": 0.005322222222222228, "cut": true }, { "label": "Round win | T", "share": 0.02245555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "10_soft", "dice": [ "4-6", "6-4" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Kill | HS, CT, 2nd half", "share": 0.05555555555555554, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "11", "dice": [ "5-6", "6-5" ], "target_p": 0.05555555555555555, "composition": [ { "label": "Round win | CT", "share": 0.0552, "cut": false }, { "label": "Round win | T", "share": 0.00012222222222228046, "cut": true }, { "label": "Bomb plant", "share": 0.00023333333333350886, "cut": true } ] }, { "key": "12", "dice": [ "6-6" ], "target_p": 0.027777777777777776, "composition": [ { "label": "Round win | T", "share": 0.02777777777777777, "cut": true } ] } ], "attribute_splits": [ "Kill | HS, T, 1st half: HS x side x half split (real)", "Kill | HS, T, 2nd half: split", "Kill | HS, CT, 1st half: split", "Kill | HS, CT, 2nd half: split", "Kill | body, T, 1st half: split", "Kill | body, T, 2nd half: split", "Kill | body, CT, 1st half: split", "Kill | body, CT, 2nd half: split", "Bomb plant: .45 plants / 9.05 ticks per round", "Defuse / explode: .3 resolutions / 9.05", "Round win | T: 1 round-end / 9.05, T share ~.50", "Round win | CT: round-end tick" ], "pass_edge": 0.014141, "pass_edge_drift10": [ 0.004921523105197445, 0.022426676569223702 ] }, "livecrash": { "bust_event": "Round ends at this kill", "unit": "kill", "hazard": 0.14, "growth_per_event": 1.1627906976744187, "instant_bust": 0.02, "cdf": [ { "x": 1.2, "steps": 2, "mult_at_step": 1.3521, "fair_p": 0.8166666666666667, "achieved_p": 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